El Paso Locomotive FC vs New Mexico United: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 21hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%O2.556%56%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- New Mexico United2:2El Paso Locomotive FCD
- El Paso Locomotive FC3:0New Mexico UnitedW
- New Mexico United1:0El Paso Locomotive FCL
- El Paso Locomotive FC1:2New Mexico UnitedL
- New Mexico United3:2El Paso Locomotive FCL
El Paso Locomotive FC's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.4league 9.2under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.4league 4.2under 4.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.6 : 1.4total 2.9Attack/defence1.7 : 1.3total 2.9
El Paso Locomotive FC : New Mexico UnitedMost likely scores
Model1-112%2-19%1-08%1-28%2-0—0-17%Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%1-27%2-08%0-17%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-08%1-09%1-21-28%1-27%2-02-0—2-08%0-10-17%0-17%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 67%71% | 71% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66%67% | 67% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 58%53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56%56% | 56% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44%44% | 44% |
| 1 – El Paso Locomotive FC win | 42%47% · Elo 40% | 47%· Elo 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34%33% | 33% |
| 2 – New Mexico United win | 33%29% · Elo 33% | 29%· Elo 33% |
| X – draw | 25%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
El Paso Locomotive FC attack vs New Mexico United defenceattack1523defence1441+82 pts to the attack
New Mexico United attack vs El Paso Locomotive FC defenceattack1541defence1482+59 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 48%over
We expect 8.9 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.565%51%
8.552%34%
9.540%28%
10.529%24%
Each team on its own
El Paso Locomotive FCwe expect 5.9, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 67%
New Mexico Unitedwe expect 3.7, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 54%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 22.2 in this match, 22.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.553%63%
22.546%52%
23.539%46%
24.533%41%
Each team on its own
El Paso Locomotive FCwe expect 11.2, league average 11.0 · chance of over 11.5: 44%
New Mexico Unitedwe expect 11.0, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 42%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 66%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 34%over
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.585%70%
2.566%55%
3.545%39%
4.527%17%
Each team on its own
El Paso Locomotive FCwe expect 1.5, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
New Mexico Unitedwe expect 2.0, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 57%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- New Mexico United matches average 5.8 cards (league 4.4) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- New Mexico United: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- El Paso Locomotive FC: 25 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- El Paso Locomotive FC: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- New Mexico United: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Western Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 48:36 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 44:33 | 49 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win El Paso Locomotive FC vs New Mexico United?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: El Paso Locomotive FC win 42%, draw 25%, New Mexico United win 33%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in El Paso Locomotive FC vs New Mexico United?
Expected goals: 2.9 (El Paso Locomotive FC 1.6, New Mexico United 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is El Paso Locomotive FC vs New Mexico United?
The USL Championship match kicks off 25 October 2026, 01:00 (UK time).