USL ChampionshipMatchday 132
Louisville City vs Miami: prediction, tips and stats
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2.0:0.9Pre-match
Our tips
Tip in 4h 52mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS59%50%O2.565%54%|exp. goals 2.0 : 0.9H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Miami4:3Louisville CityL
- Louisville City4:1MiamiW
- Louisville City1:0MiamiW
- Miami2:4Louisville CityW
- Louisville City3:0MiamiW
Louisville City's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss4.4 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
9.2league 9.2under 9.5: 56%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league
4.2league 4.2under 4.5: 59%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.Referee
no referee dataPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.3 : 1.0total 3.3Attack/defence2.0 : 0.9total 2.8
Louisville City : MiamiMost likely scores
Market2-09%1-08%1-19%2-110%3-0—3-17%Attack/defence2-012%1-011%1-110%2-110%3-08%3-16%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-09%2-012%1-01-08%1-011%1-11-19%1-110%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-0—3-08%3-13-17%3-16%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85%77% | 77% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 84%85% | 85% |
| 12 – no draw | 81%78% | 78% |
| 1 – Louisville City win | 65%63% · Elo 67% | 63%· Elo 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59%50% | 50% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57%69% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43%31% | 31% |
| Both teams to score: no | 41%50% | 50% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 35%37% | 37% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35%46% | 46% |
| X – draw | 19%22% · Elo 19% | 22%· Elo 19% |
| 2 – Miami win | 16%15% · Elo 14% | 15%· Elo 14% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Louisville City attack vs Miami defenceattack1630defence1439+191 pts to the attack
Miami attack vs Louisville City defenceattack1431defence1567−136 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 7.9 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.566%59%
7.552%48%
8.539%32%
9.527%27%
Each team on its own
Louisville Citywe expect 4.7, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 49%
Miamiwe expect 3.3, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 41%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 21.8 in this match, 23.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.543%56%
23.536%49%
24.530%44%
25.524%38%
Each team on its own
Louisville Citywe expect 11.3, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 45%
Miamiwe expect 10.3, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 34%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.563%58%
3.541%40%
4.523%19%
5.512%14%
Each team on its own
Louisville Citywe expect 1.8, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 53%
Miamiwe expect 1.5, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Louisville City | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 51:43 | 47 |
| 8 | Miami | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 39:49 | 36 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Louisville City vs Miami?
Louisville City are the favourites. Chances: Louisville City win 65%, draw 19%, Miami win 16%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Louisville City vs Miami?
Expected goals: 3.3 (Louisville City 2.3, Miami 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 65%. Most likely score: 2-1.
Will both teams score in Louisville City vs Miami?
The chance that both teams score is 59%.
When is Louisville City vs Miami?
The USL Championship match kicks off 8 November 2026, 00:00 (UK time).