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Challenger NingboChallenger 75Finalhardbest of three sets

Bar Biryukov vs Demin 1:2: result and our tips

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Petr Bar BiryukovATP #268Elo 1664hard 1678
1:2final7:5 2:6 6:7(6)
Yaroslav DeminATP #358Elo 1642hard 1640

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: DeminLost59%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Demin: 9 matches in a row winning the first set; Bar Biryukov lost the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches, Demin won the first set in 11 of the last 17 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: DeminWon62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 62%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Demin: 6 wins in a row; Demin won 8 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Games: Over 21.5Won57%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 54% → with the players' profiles 57%

    Bar Biryukov: 4 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Won38%

Where the number comes from: market alone 36% → with the players' profiles 38%

Bar Biryukov: 4 matches in a row over 25.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Petr Bar Biryukov38%
Yaroslav Demin62%

Elo: P. Bar Biryukov 55% · Y. Demin 45%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 P. Bar Biryukov22%
2:1 P. Bar Biryukov16%
2:1 Y. Demin22%
2:0 Y. Demin40%

First set

Petr Bar Biryukov42%
Yaroslav Demin59%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 48%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.573%27%62%
20.564%36%54%
21.557%43%49%
22.552%48%42%
23.545%55%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.538%62%32%

Sample: 5,928 matches

Games handicap

Y. Demin −2.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes43%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 23.0out · 33 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Petr Bar BiryukovYaroslav Demin
10Aces4
10Double faults5
62%First serves in68%
64%First-serve points won76%
50%Second-serve points won63%
2/5Break points converted3/14
13/16Service games held14/16
59%Service points won72%
28%Return points won41%
103Total points won121

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

P. Bar BiryukovTourY. Demin
Service points won64%62%62%
Return points won32%38%38%
Service games held81%76%78%
Breaks of serve16%24%24%
Aces per service game0.830.40
Double faults per game0.410.39
Sets with a tie-break21%14%
Tie-breaks won16/284/5
Wins in straight sets50%82%
Matches in the sample5517

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Petr Bar Biryukov

Yaroslav Demin

Elo over the last year

Petr Bar BiryukovYaroslav Demin

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

P. Bar BiryukovY. Demin
Hard court26–2057%9–564%
Clay2–529%2–167%
Grass0–20%0–0

Head to head

P. Bar Biryukov 1–0 Y. Demin

  • 27/11/24Winner: P. Bar Biryukov7:6 7:6

Road through the tournament

Petr Bar Biryukov

Yaroslav Demin

See also