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WTA 125 QuerétaroQuarterfinalclaybest of three setsqualifying

Maria vs Strakhova 2:0: result and our tips

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Tatjana MariaWTA #66Elo 1802clay 1697
2:0final7:6(2) 6:3
Valeriya StrakhovaWTA #417Elo 1450clay 1487

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

How our tips did

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Tatjana Maria92%
Valeriya Strakhova8%

Elo: T. Maria 77% · V. Strakhova 23%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Maria79%
2:1 T. Maria14%
2:1 V. Strakhova4%
2:0 V. Strakhova4%

First set

Tatjana Maria88%
Valeriya Strakhova13%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes17%
no83%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 18.5 · 62%market (no margin): 52%

The 18.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 18.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
14.584%16%93%
15.571%29%86%
16.559%41%77%
17.548%52%68%
18.539%62%59%
19.531%69%52%
20.525%75%45%

Sample: 593 matches

Games handicap

T. Maria −6.557%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes13%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 18.5out · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Tatjana MariaValeriya Strakhova
2Aces0
0Double faults1
65%First serves in57%
73%First-serve points won56%
46%Second-serve points won46%
5/6Break points converted3/3
7/10Service games held6/11
63%Service points won51%
49%Return points won37%
76Total points won62

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. MariaTourV. Strakhova
Service points won59%56%53%
Return points won44%44%44%
Service games held69%63%57%
Breaks of serve36%37%37%
Aces per service game0.410.13
Double faults per game0.250.29
Sets with a tie-break10%0%
Tie-breaks won6/120/0
Wins in straight sets87%60%
Matches in the sample5814

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Tatjana Maria

Valeriya Strakhova

  • 29/10/26WPolona Hercog#201WTA 125 Querétaro · R162:6 6:2 6:2
  • 27/10/26WSofia Costoulas#183WTA 125 Querétaro · R326:4 6:3
  • 26/10/26WAmelie van Impe#625WTA 125 Querétaro · Q26:1 5:7 6:4
  • 26/10/26WGabriela VilarWTA 125 Querétaro · Q16:0 6:0
  • 19/07/26LChloe Paquet#333WTA Hamburg · Q13:6 6:4 2:6
  • 06/07/26LMiriam Bianca Bulgaru#374WTA 125 Bastad · R322:6 2:6
  • 21/02/26LMiriana Tona#378WTA Merida · Q12:6 4:6
  • 15/02/26LDalayna Hewitt#599WTA 125 Midland · Q14:6 4:6
  • 02/12/25LMell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez#360WTA 125 Quito · R326:3 5:7 5:7
  • 01/12/25WTania Varela-AlvaradoWTA 125 Quito · Q16:0 6:2

Elo over the last year

Tatjana MariaValeriya Strakhova

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. MariaV. Strakhova
Hard court6–1529%0–20%
Clay9–756%5–742%
Grass16–576%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Tatjana Maria

Valeriya Strakhova

  • 26/10/26WGabriela VilarWTA 125 Querétaro · Q16:0 6:0
  • 26/10/26WAmelie van Impe#625WTA 125 Querétaro · Q26:1 5:7 6:4
  • 27/10/26WSofia Costoulas#183WTA 125 Querétaro · R326:4 6:3
  • 29/10/26WPolona Hercog#201WTA 125 Querétaro · R162:6 6:2 6:2

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See also