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WTA 125 CaliRound of 32claybest of three sets

Ortenzi vs Mandlik 2:1: result and our tips

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Jazmin OrtenziWTA #180Elo 1575clay 1597
2:1final7:5 1:6 6:3
Elizabeth MandlikWTA #221Elo 1508clay 1468

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Won59%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Mandlik: 8 matches in a row over 19.5 games; Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Ortenzi 12 of 20, Mandlik 14 of 20 (tour average 52%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 23.5Won39%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 23.5 games in recent matches: Ortenzi 9 of 20, Mandlik 11 of 20 (tour average 33%); Mandlik: 3 matches in a row over 23.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jazmin Ortenzi57%
Elizabeth Mandlik43%

Elo: J. Ortenzi 68% · E. Mandlik 32%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Ortenzi34%
2:1 J. Ortenzi22%
2:1 E. Mandlik18%
2:0 E. Mandlik27%

First set

Jazmin Ortenzi52%
Elizabeth Mandlik48%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.0 · 48%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.567%33%59%
19.559%41%52%
20.552%48%45%
21.548%52%41%
22.543%57%37%
23.539%61%33%
24.537%64%31%

Sample: 1,523 matches

Games handicap

J. Ortenzi −1.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 21.0in · 28 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Jazmin OrtenziElizabeth Mandlik
0Aces2
2Double faults5
76%First serves in55%
64%First-serve points won58%
52%Second-serve points won54%
5/10Break points converted5/10
9/14Service games held9/14
57%Service points won56%
44%Return points won43%
89Total points won85

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. OrtenziTourE. Mandlik
Service points won54%56%55%
Return points won46%44%44%
Service games held58%63%61%
Breaks of serve44%37%34%
Aces per service game0.070.14
Double faults per game0.290.45
Sets with a tie-break8%10%
Tie-breaks won4/63/7
Wins in straight sets69%60%
Matches in the sample3128

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jazmin Ortenzi

Elizabeth Mandlik

Elo over the last year

Jazmin OrtenziElizabeth Mandlik

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. OrtenziE. Mandlik
Hard court2–433%4–833%
Clay14–1058%2–722%
Grass0–10%4–357%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Jazmin Ortenzi

First match in this tournament.

Elizabeth Mandlik

Upcoming matches

See also