Primera LPFMatchday 16
Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano: prediction, tips and stats
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1.4:1.1Pre-match
Our tips
Tip in 22h 1mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS52%49%O2.547%44%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.1H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Belgrano0:1Gimnasia L.P.W
- Belgrano0:1Gimnasia L.P.W
- Gimnasia L.P.0:2BelgranoL
- Belgrano2:0Gimnasia L.P.L
- Belgrano2:0Gimnasia L.P.L
Gimnasia L.P.'s record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses1.6 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
9.5league 9.2under 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 9.5 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 9.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league
4.7league 4.8over 4.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 23%.Referee
awaiting appointmentPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.1total 2.5Attack/defence1.4 : 1.1total 2.4
Gimnasia L.P. : BelgranoMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-010%0-09%0-1—2-19%2-08%Attack/defence1-113%1-012%0-09%0-19%2-19%2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-010%1-012%0-00-09%0-09%0-10-1—0-19%2-12-19%2-19%2-02-08%2-08%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 74%77% | 77% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73%70% | 70% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%72% | 72% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 71%71% | 71% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 57%57% | 57% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53%56% | 56% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52%49% | 49% |
| Both teams to score: no | 48%51% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47%44% | 44% |
| 1 – Gimnasia L.P. win | 43%43% · Elo 40% | 43%· Elo 40% |
| 2 – Belgrano win | 29%29% · Elo 29% | 29%· Elo 29% |
| X – draw | 28%28% · Elo 31% | 28%· Elo 31% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27%30% | 30% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Gimnasia L.P. attack vs Belgrano defenceattack1525defence15250 pts to the attack
Belgrano attack vs Gimnasia L.P. defenceattack1501defence1467+34 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 8.8 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.564%53%
8.551%40%
9.539%31%
10.528%22%
Each team on its own
Gimnasia L.P.we expect 5.1, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 56%
Belgranowe expect 4.1, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 57%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 21.8 in this match, 22.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.550%54%
22.543%49%
23.536%43%
24.530%35%
Each team on its own
Gimnasia L.P.we expect 10.0, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 42%
Belgranowe expect 11.8, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 50%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 48%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.572%65%
3.552%39%
4.533%24%
5.519%14%
Each team on its own
Gimnasia L.P.we expect 1.9, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 56%
Belgranowe expect 1.9, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 56%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
Teams
- Belgrano7 matches in a row under 2.5 goals awayWent on 54%League 62%Model 53%Record 27
Players
- Ignacio FernandezGimnasia L.P.3 matches with a goal3 goalsWent on 28%Season 16%
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Gimnasia L.P.: unbeaten in 9 league matches
- Belgrano score a lot late on: 11 of 27 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Gimnasia L.P.: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Belgrano: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Clausura, Group B
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gimnasia L.P. | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23:19 | 28 |
| 5 | Belgrano | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16:13 | 23 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano?
Gimnasia L.P. are the favourites. Chances: Gimnasia L.P. win 43%, draw 28%, Belgrano win 29%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Gimnasia L.P. 1.4, Belgrano 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano?
The chance that both teams score is 52%.
When is Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano?
The Primera LPF match kicks off 5 November 2026, 22:15 (UK time).