Primera LPFMatchday 14
River Plate vs Racing Club: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 13hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS44%51%O2.546%49%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Racing Club0:2River PlateW
- Racing Club3:2River PlateL
- Racing Club1:0River PlateL
- River Plate2:1Racing ClubW
- Racing Club1:2River PlateW
River Plate's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.6league 8.8under 8.5: 52%Expected corners: 8.6 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 48% of matches end under 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.7league 4.8under 4.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.8 : 0.7total 2.5Attack/defence1.7 : 1.0total 2.6
River Plate : Racing ClubMost likely scores
Market1-014%2-013%1-111%2-19%0-09%0-1—Attack/defence1-012%2-010%1-112%2-110%0-08%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-014%1-012%2-02-013%2-010%1-11-111%1-112%2-12-19%2-110%0-00-09%0-08%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 86%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%74% | 74% |
| 1 – River Plate win | 63%53% · Elo 47% | 53%· Elo 47% |
| Both teams to score: no | 56%50% | 50% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54%51% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46%49% | 49% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44%51% | 51% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 37%47% | 47% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%26% | 26% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25%27% | 27% |
| X – draw | 23%25% · Elo 29% | 25%· Elo 29% |
| 2 – Racing Club win | 14%22% · Elo 23% | 22%· Elo 23% |
Attack vs defence
River Plate attack vs Racing Club defenceattack1623defence1504+119 pts to the attack
Racing Club attack vs River Plate defenceattack1556defence1573−17 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 8.3 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.571%63%
7.558%52%
8.545%40%
9.533%30%
Each team on its own
River Platewe expect 5.5, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 62%
Racing Clubwe expect 3.2, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 22.2 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.553%56%
22.546%50%
23.539%45%
24.533%37%
Each team on its own
River Platewe expect 11.0, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 53%
Racing Clubwe expect 11.2, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 44%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 4.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.579%65%
3.560%41%
4.541%26%
5.525%14%
Each team on its own
River Platewe expect 2.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 71%
Racing Clubwe expect 1.8, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Racing Club: only 7 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- River Plate concede a lot late on: 9 of 20 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- River Plate: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Racing Club: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Clausura, Group B
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | River Plate | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14:12 | 16 |
| 13 | Racing Club | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13:19 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win River Plate vs Racing Club?
River Plate are the favourites. Chances: River Plate win 63%, draw 23%, Racing Club win 14%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in River Plate vs Racing Club?
Expected goals: 2.5 (River Plate 1.8, Racing Club 0.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-0.
Will both teams score in River Plate vs Racing Club?
The chance that both teams score is 44%.
When is River Plate vs Racing Club?
The Primera LPF match kicks off 25 October 2026, 22:15 (UK time).