Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 31
Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 20hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%55%O2.548%51%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Palmeiras1:0Athletico-PRL
- Athletico-PR0:2PalmeirasL
- Palmeiras0:2Athletico-PRW
- Palmeiras1:0Athletico-PRL
- Athletico-PR2:2PalmeirasD
Athletico-PR's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.4under 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.7under 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.4total 2.6Attack/defence1.3 : 1.5total 2.7
Athletico-PR : PalmeirasMost likely scores
Market1-113%0-110%1-29%0-08%1-08%2-1—Attack/defence1-113%0-19%1-29%0-07%1-08%2-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%0-10-110%0-19%1-21-29%1-29%0-00-08%0-07%1-01-08%1-08%2-12-1—2-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73%71% | 71% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%74% | 74% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 70%68% | 68% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 58%59% | 59% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54%55% | 55% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52%49% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48%51% | 51% |
| Both teams to score: no | 46%45% | 45% |
| 2 – Palmeiras win | 42%41% · Elo 41% | 41%· Elo 41% |
| 1 – Athletico-PR win | 30%32% · Elo 30% | 32%· Elo 30% |
| X – draw | 28%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27%29% | 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
Athletico-PR attack vs Palmeiras defenceattack1513defence1658−145 pts to the attack
Palmeiras attack vs Athletico-PR defenceattack1605defence1466+139 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 10.1 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.567%55%
9.555%43%
10.543%32%
11.532%26%
Each team on its own
Athletico-PRwe expect 5.5, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 47%
Palmeiraswe expect 5.0, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 71%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 24.3 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.553%59%
24.547%51%
25.540%45%
26.534%40%
Each team on its own
Athletico-PRwe expect 12.4, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 47%
Palmeiraswe expect 11.8, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 40%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 53%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 47%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.572%78%
2.547%55%
3.526%34%
4.512%20%
Each team on its own
Athletico-PRwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Palmeiraswe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Athletico-PR8 matches in a row with BTTSat home: 4Went on 55%League 60%Model 54%Record 25
- Athletico-PR7 matches in a row over 2.5 goalsat home: 3Went on 59%League 52%Model 48%Record 15
- Athletico-PR13 matches unbeaten at homeoverall: 4Went on 81%League 76%Model 58%Record 33
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Palmeiras concede only 0.6 goals per game
- Athletico-PR: newly promoted
- Athletico-PR: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Palmeiras: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 52:22 | 63 |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 49:35 | 53 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras?
Palmeiras are the favourites. Chances: Athletico-PR win 30%, draw 28%, Palmeiras win 42%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Athletico-PR 1.2, Palmeiras 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 48%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras?
The chance that both teams score is 54%.
When is Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 17 October 2026, 23:30 (UK time).