Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 32
Palmeiras vs Bragantino: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 10d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS49%50%O2.551%53%|exp. goals 1.9 : 0.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Bragantino0:1PalmeirasW
- Palmeiras5:1BragantinoW
- Bragantino1:2PalmeirasW
- Bragantino0:0PalmeirasD
- Palmeiras2:1BragantinoW
Palmeiras's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.4under 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.7under 4.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 0.8total 2.7Attack/defence1.9 : 0.9total 2.8
Palmeiras : BragantinoMost likely scores
Market2-012%1-012%1-111%2-110%3-07%3-1—Attack/defence2-011%1-011%1-111%2-110%3-07%3-16%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-012%2-011%1-01-012%1-011%1-11-111%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-07%3-07%3-13-1—3-16%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 85%84% | 84% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%78% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76%77% | 77% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71%69% | 69% |
| 1 – Palmeiras win | 62%62% · Elo 67% | 62%· Elo 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: no | 51%50% | 50% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49%50% | 50% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 38%38% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29%31% | 31% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24%23% | 23% |
| X – draw | 23%22% · Elo 20% | 22%· Elo 20% |
| 2 – Bragantino win | 15%16% · Elo 13% | 16%· Elo 13% |
Attack vs defence
Palmeiras attack vs Bragantino defenceattack1605defence1508+97 pts to the attack
Bragantino attack vs Palmeiras defenceattack1514defence1658−144 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 10.1 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.566%55%
9.554%43%
10.542%32%
11.532%26%
Each team on its own
Palmeiraswe expect 6.9, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 66%
Bragantinowe expect 3.9, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 59%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 23.4 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.547%59%
24.541%51%
25.534%45%
26.529%40%
Each team on its own
Palmeiraswe expect 11.7, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 40%
Bragantinowe expect 11.5, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 37%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 58%close to the league averageunder 42%over
We expect 3.0 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.580%78%
2.558%55%
3.536%34%
4.520%20%
Each team on its own
Palmeiraswe expect 2.0, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 59%
Bragantinowe expect 1.0, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 28%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Bragantino matches average only 3.7 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Palmeiras concede only 0.6 goals per game
- Bragantino: only 9 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Palmeiras: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Bragantino: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 52:22 | 63 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 38:35 | 40 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Palmeiras vs Bragantino?
Palmeiras are the favourites. Chances: Palmeiras win 62%, draw 23%, Bragantino win 15%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Bragantino?
Expected goals: 2.7 (Palmeiras 1.9, Bragantino 0.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 2-0.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Bragantino?
The chance that both teams score is 49%.
When is Palmeiras vs Bragantino?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 24 October 2026, 22:30 (UK time).