Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 30

Bragantino 4-2 Cruzeiro: prediction, tips and result

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Bragantino
2-31-11-20-11-1
4-2Full time(half time 3-1)
Cruzeiro
2-03-11-23-11-3
Stadium:
Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques, Braganca Paulista
Referee:
Savio Pereira Sampaio

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Won58%

under 5.5 card points in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 9 of the visitors' last 10 (56% of league matches); 4.1 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 4.2 in the visitors', league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Both Teams To Score: YesWon62%

    Cruzeiro: scored in each of their last 9 league matches

  • Shots on Target – Cruzeiro: Over 3.5Won63%

    Cruzeiro: 6.0 shots on target a match, Bragantino's opponents had 4.8 on average, league average 3.9; over 3.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 league matches (52% of league matches)

  • Offsides – Bragantino: Under 1.5Won65%

    Bragantino: under 1.5 offsides in 9 of their last 10 league matches, Cruzeiro's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 6 of 10 (54% of league matches); our numbers for Bragantino: 1.2 offsides against a league average of 1.5

  • Fouls: Under 23.5Lost56%

    our numbers: 22.9 fouls against a league average of 25.0; 19.5 fouls a match in the hosts' matches, 26.4 in the visitors', league average 25.0

For the brave
Correct Score: 1:1Lost12%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloBragantino168142%33%Draw26%29%Cruzeiro176332%38%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS63%53%O2.560%48%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Cruzeiro2:1BragantinoL
  2. Cruzeiro2:1BragantinoL
  3. Bragantino1:0CruzeiroW
  4. Bragantino1:1CruzeiroD
  5. Cruzeiro2:1BragantinoL
Bragantino's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.6league 10.4under 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.6 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 13
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.7league 4.7over 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 26%.lost · ended 4
RefereeS. Pereira Sampaio+0.8 yellow cards vs average11 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)72%O2.51:1coverageleague 61% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 1.4total 3.1Attack/defence1.5 : 1.1total 2.6
Bragantino : Cruzeiro
Most likely scores
Market1-112%1-07%2-19%1-28%0-1—2-0—0-0—2-26%Attack/defence1-113%1-010%2-19%1-2—0-18%2-08%0-08%2-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-07%1-010%2-12-19%2-19%1-21-28%1-2—0-10-1—0-18%2-02-0—2-08%0-00-0—0-08%2-22-26%2-2—
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals82%73%73%
12 – no draw74%73%73%
1X – home team avoid defeat68%71%71%
Both teams to score: yes63%53%53%
Under 3.5 goals62%73%73%
Over 2.5 goals60%48%48%
X2 – away team avoid defeat58%55%55%
1 – Bragantino win42%44% · Elo 33%44%· Elo 33%
Under 2.5 goals40%52%52%
Over 3.5 goals38%27%27%
Both teams to score: no37%47%47%
2 – Cruzeiro win32%29% · Elo 38%29%· Elo 38%
X – draw26%27% · Elo 29%27%· Elo 29%
Under 1.5 goals18%27%27%
Attack vs defence
Bragantino attack vs Cruzeiro defenceattack1502defence1551−49 pts to the attack
Cruzeiro attack vs Bragantino defenceattack1530defence1518+12 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 10.1 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
8.566%55%
9.555%43%
10.543%32%
11.532%26%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Bragantinowe expect 6.2, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 57%
Cruzeirowe expect 4.4, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 63%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 22.9 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
23.544%59%
24.537%51%
25.531%45%
26.526%40%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Bragantinowe expect 11.6, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 38%
Cruzeirowe expect 11.5, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 37%
Referee: 25.8 fouls per match on average (22 matches in our data)−0.6 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.576%78%
2.553%55%
3.531%34%
4.516%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Bragantinowe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Cruzeirowe expect 1.5, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 44%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Bragantino: only 7 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Cruzeiro: 21 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Bragantino: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Cruzeiro: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Bragantino

Cruzeiro

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Cruzeiro301461046:4448
9Bragantino301171238:3540
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Bragantino vs Cruzeiro?

Bragantino 4-2 Cruzeiro (half time 3-1).

Did the Bragantino vs Cruzeiro tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5. The tip won.

See also