Brasileiro Serie AMatchday 32
Santos vs Bahia: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 20hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%59%O2.553%57%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Bahia2:2SantosD
- Bahia2:0SantosL
- Santos2:2BahiaD
- Bahia1:2SantosW
- Santos3:0BahiaW
Santos's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.4under 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.7under 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.3total 2.8Attack/defence1.7 : 1.3total 3.0
Santos : BahiaMost likely scores
Market1-113%2-19%1-08%2-07%1-27%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-08%2-07%1-27%0-16%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-08%1-08%2-02-07%2-07%1-21-27%1-27%0-10-1—0-16%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 69%71% | 71% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%66% | 66% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 58%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%59% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53%57% | 57% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%43% | 43% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%41% | 41% |
| 1 – Santos win | 42%46% · Elo 47% | 46%· Elo 47% |
| 2 – Bahia win | 31%29% · Elo 26% | 29%· Elo 26% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%34% | 34% |
| X – draw | 27%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Santos attack vs Bahia defenceattack1519defence1504+15 pts to the attack
Bahia attack vs Santos defenceattack1542defence1469+73 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 9.4 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.559%55%
9.547%43%
10.535%32%
11.525%26%
Each team on its own
Santoswe expect 5.6, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 48%
Bahiawe expect 4.0, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 62%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 38%
We expect 23.1 in this match, 25.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.545%59%
24.538%51%
25.532%45%
26.527%40%
Each team on its own
Santoswe expect 11.2, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 35%
Bahiawe expect 11.6, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 38%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 55%close to the league averageunder 45%over
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.578%78%
2.555%55%
3.533%34%
4.517%20%
Each team on its own
Santoswe expect 1.8, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Bahiawe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 31%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Bahia matches average only 3.7 cards (league 4.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Santos: 20 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Santos: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Bahia: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44:36 | 49 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 46:45 | 42 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Santos vs Bahia?
Santos are the favourites. Chances: Santos win 42%, draw 27%, Bahia win 31%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Bahia?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Santos 1.5, Bahia 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Bahia?
The chance that both teams score is 57%.
When is Santos vs Bahia?
The Brasileiro Serie A match kicks off 25 October 2026, 01:00 (UK time).