Chinese Super LeagueMatchday 29
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng vs Shanghai Shenhua: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%O2.566%62%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Shanghai Shenhua1:2Shenzhen XinpengchengW
- Shanghai Shenhua1:0Shenzhen XinpengchengL
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng3:1Shanghai ShenhuaW
- Shanghai Shenhua2:2Shenzhen XinpengchengD
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng0:1Shanghai ShenhuaL
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 10.1under 10.5: 59%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 10.1 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.9over 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.3 : 2.1total 3.4Attack/defence1.3 : 1.9total 3.2
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng : Shanghai ShenhuaMost likely scores
Model1-110%1-210%0-17%0-27%1-37%2-1—2-2—Attack/defence1-111%1-210%0-18%0-27%1-3—2-17%2-26%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-110%1-111%1-21-210%1-210%0-10-17%0-18%0-20-27%0-27%1-31-37%1-3—2-12-1—2-17%2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86%83% | 83% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%77% | 77% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 77%74% | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66%62% | 62% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 56%61% | 61% |
| 2 – Shanghai Shenhua win | 54%51% · Elo 54% | 51%· Elo 54% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 46%49% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44%39% | 39% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35%39% | 39% |
| 1 – Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win | 23%26% · Elo 21% | 26%· Elo 21% |
| X – draw | 22%23% · Elo 25% | 23%· Elo 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14%17% | 17% |
Attack vs defence
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng attack vs Shanghai Shenhua defenceattack1414defence1542−128 pts to the attack
Shanghai Shenhua attack vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng defenceattack1654defence1442+212 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 67%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 33%over
We expect 10.1 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.578%59%
8.567%52%
9.555%42%
10.543%31%
Each team on its own
Shenzhen Xinpengchengwe expect 5.1, league average 5.0 · chance of over 4.5: 56%
Shanghai Shenhuawe expect 5.6, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 78%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 24.4 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.561%52%
23.554%45%
24.547%39%
25.541%32%
Each team on its own
Shenzhen Xinpengchengwe expect 11.5, league average 11.3 · chance of over 11.5: 48%
Shanghai Shenhuawe expect 13.0, league average 12.0 · chance of over 11.5: 63%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.566%60%
3.545%43%
4.526%27%
5.514%18%
Each team on its own
Shenzhen Xinpengchengwe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Shanghai Shenhuawe expect 1.8, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 53%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Shanghai Shenhua concede 2.0 goals per game
- Shanghai Shenhua score 2.3 goals per game
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng concede a lot late on: 13 of 32 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Shanghai Shenhua: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 59:47 | 34 |
| 11 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 36:47 | 29 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Shenzhen Xinpengcheng vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua are the favourites. Chances: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win 23%, draw 22%, Shanghai Shenhua win 54%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Shenzhen Xinpengcheng vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Expected goals: 3.4 (Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 1.3, Shanghai Shenhua 2.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 66%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Shenzhen Xinpengcheng vs Shanghai Shenhua?
The Chinese Super League match kicks off 24 October 2026, 08:30 (UK time).