1. LigaMatchday 11
Ostrava vs Sparta Prague: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%56%O2.560%52%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Sparta Prague5:2OstravaL
- Ostrava0:3Sparta PragueL
- Ostrava3:2Sparta PragueW
- Ostrava1:1Sparta PragueD
- Sparta Prague1:3OstravaW
Ostrava's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses4.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 9.9over 9.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.8under 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 23%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.9total 3.1Attack/defence1.2 : 1.5total 2.8
Ostrava : Sparta PragueMost likely scores
Market1-111%1-210%0-18%0-28%1-0—2-1—1-36%Attack/defence1-112%1-29%0-19%0-28%1-07%2-17%1-3—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-21-210%1-29%0-10-18%0-19%0-20-28%0-28%1-01-0—1-07%2-12-1—2-17%1-31-36%1-3—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%76% | 76% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 77%70% | 70% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63%70% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60%56% | 56% |
| 2 – Sparta Prague win | 54%44% · Elo 56% | 44%· Elo 56% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 46%56% | 56% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40%48% | 48% |
| Both teams to score: no | 40%44% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37%30% | 30% |
| 1 – Ostrava win | 23%30% · Elo 20% | 30%· Elo 20% |
| X – draw | 23%26% · Elo 24% | 26%· Elo 24% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Ostrava attack vs Sparta Prague defenceattack1473defence1583−110 pts to the attack
Sparta Prague attack vs Ostrava defenceattack1658defence1490+168 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 50%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 50%over
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.563%61%
8.550%45%
9.538%31%
10.527%19%
Each team on its own
Ostravawe expect 3.9, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 35%
Sparta Praguewe expect 5.0, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 71%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 22.4 in this match, 23.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.547%56%
23.540%50%
24.534%44%
25.528%36%
Each team on its own
Ostravawe expect 11.5, league average 11.5 · chance of over 11.5: 47%
Sparta Praguewe expect 10.7, league average 12.1 · chance of over 12.5: 29%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 65%close to the league averageunderover 35%
We expect 2.1 in this match, 2.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.562%66%
2.535%37%
3.517%20%
4.57%12%
Each team on its own
Ostravawe expect 1.0, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 28%
Sparta Praguewe expect 1.0, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 28%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Ostrava score only 0.7 goals per game
- Ostrava: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Sparta Prague: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sparta Prague | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 20:12 | 18 |
| 12 | Ostrava | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7:18 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ostrava vs Sparta Prague?
Sparta Prague are the favourites. Chances: Ostrava win 23%, draw 23%, Sparta Prague win 54%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Ostrava vs Sparta Prague?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Ostrava 1.2, Sparta Prague 1.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Ostrava vs Sparta Prague?
The chance that both teams score is 60%.
When is Ostrava vs Sparta Prague?
The 1. Liga match kicks off 18 October 2026, 14:00 (UK time).