ChampionshipMatchday 11
Birmingham vs QPR: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%53%O2.550%49%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Birmingham1:0QPRW
- QPR2:1BirminghamL
- QPR2:1BirminghamL
- Birmingham0:0QPRD
- QPR0:1BirminghamW
Birmingham's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses1.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.8over 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.1total 2.7Attack/defence1.5 : 1.1total 2.6
Birmingham : QPRMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-010%2-110%2-09%0-08%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%2-19%2-08%0-08%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-010%1-011%2-12-110%2-19%2-02-09%2-08%0-00-08%0-08%0-10-1—0-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 75%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72%73% | 73% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53%53% | 53% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 50%53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%49% | 49% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50%51% | 51% |
| 1 – Birmingham win | 49%47% · Elo 47% | 47%· Elo 47% |
| Both teams to score: no | 47%48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28%27% | 27% |
| X – draw | 26%26% · Elo 27% | 26%· Elo 27% |
| 2 – QPR win | 24%27% · Elo 26% | 27%· Elo 26% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24%26% | 26% |
Attack vs defence
Birmingham attack vs QPR defenceattack1505defence1487+18 pts to the attack
QPR attack vs Birmingham defenceattack1505defence1541−36 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 8.1 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.555%56%
8.541%40%
9.530%31%
10.520%20%
Each team on its own
Birminghamwe expect 4.6, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 48%
QPRwe expect 3.5, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 45%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 19.6 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.549%56%
20.541%46%
21.534%37%
22.528%33%
Each team on its own
Birminghamwe expect 10.0, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 53%
QPRwe expect 9.5, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 36%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.567%66%
3.545%50%
4.527%32%
5.514%19%
Each team on its own
Birminghamwe expect 1.8, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
QPRwe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- QPR played 3 days ago
- Birmingham: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17:11 | 17 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11:8 | 14 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Birmingham vs QPR?
Birmingham are the favourites. Chances: Birmingham win 49%, draw 26%, QPR win 24%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs QPR?
Expected goals: 2.7 (Birmingham 1.6, QPR 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs QPR?
The chance that both teams score is 53%.
When is Birmingham vs QPR?
The Championship match kicks off 17 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).