ChampionshipMatchday 9
Bolton 1-2 Stoke: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich
- Referee:
- Thomas Kirk
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Both Teams To Score: YesWon55%
Stoke: scored in each of their last 8 league matches
Other tips
- Offsides: Over 4.5Lost63%
our numbers: 5.5 offsides against a league average of 3.7; 6.6 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 4.5 in the visitors', league average 3.7
- Shots on Target – Bolton: Over 4.5Won59%
our numbers for Bolton: 5.3 shots on target against a league average of 4.4; Bolton: over 4.5 shots on target in 6 of their last 8 league matches, Stoke's opponents had over 4.5 in 5 of 8 (43% of league matches)
For the brave
Correct Score: 1:1Lost13%
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%54%O2.549%52%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Bolton0:0StokeD
- Stoke2:0BoltonL
- Stoke2:2BoltonD
- Bolton5:0StokeW
- Stoke2:0BoltonL
Bolton's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 14
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.lost · ended 2
RefereeT. Kirk+0.2 yellow cards vs average31 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)73%X22:1coverageleague 68% · H2H 4/5covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.3total 2.6Attack/defence1.6 : 1.1total 2.7
Bolton : StokeMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-08%2-1—0-19%2-0—1-28%0-08%Attack/defence1-112%1-010%2-19%0-17%2-08%1-2—0-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%1-01-08%1-010%2-12-1—2-19%0-10-19%0-17%2-02-0—2-08%1-21-28%1-2—0-00-08%0-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%76% | 76% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73%71% | 71% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%75% | 75% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 65%52% | 52% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 63%74% | 74% |
| Our tip: Both teams to score: yes | 55%54% | 54% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51%49% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: no | 45%46% | 46% |
| 2 – Stoke win | 37%27% · Elo 39% | 27%· Elo 39% |
| 1 – Bolton win | 35%48% · Elo 33% | 48%· Elo 33% |
| X – draw | 28%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27%29% | 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Bolton attack vs Stoke defenceattack1515defence1475+40 pts to the attack
Stoke attack vs Bolton defenceattack1449defence1474−25 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 63%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 38%over
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.575%67%
7.563%55%
8.550%39%
9.537%29%
Each team on its own
Boltonwe expect 5.3, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 59%
Stokewe expect 3.9, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 21.5 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.562%57%
20.555%47%
21.548%37%
22.541%33%
Each team on its own
Boltonwe expect 9.7, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 49%
Stokewe expect 12.2, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 65%
Referee: 19.9 fouls per match on average (29 matches in our data)−0.2 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 79%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 21%over
We expect 5.5 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.590%66%
3.579%48%
4.563%31%
5.547%19%
Each team on its own
Boltonwe expect 1.7, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Stokewe expect 4.0, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 89%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Bolton concede a lot late on: 6 of 15 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Bolton: newly promoted
- Bolton: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Stoke: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Stoke | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17:16 | 16 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15:18 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Bolton vs Stoke?
Bolton 1-2 Stoke (half time 0-1).
Did the Bolton vs Stoke tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Both Teams To Score: Yes. The tip won.