ChampionshipMatchday 11
Millwall vs Lincoln: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%51%O2.550%47%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.1
H2Hhome side's goals firstnever met
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.4under 10.5: 50%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.1total 2.7Attack/defence1.5 : 1.1total 2.6
Millwall : LincolnMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-010%2-110%2-09%0-08%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%2-19%2-09%0-08%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-010%1-011%2-12-110%2-19%2-02-09%2-09%0-00-08%0-08%0-10-1—0-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 76%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76%72% | 72% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72%75% | 75% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53%51% | 51% |
| 1 – Millwall win | 50%47% · Elo 52% | 47%· Elo 52% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 50%53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%47% | 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: no | 47%49% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28%25% | 25% |
| X – draw | 26%27% · Elo 25% | 27%· Elo 25% |
| 2 – Lincoln win | 24%26% · Elo 22% | 26%· Elo 22% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24%28% | 28% |
Attack vs defence
Millwall attack vs Lincoln defenceattack1520defence1510+10 pts to the attack
Lincoln attack vs Millwall defenceattack1482defence1544−62 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 64%close to the league averageunderover 37%
We expect 7.7 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.550%56%
8.537%40%
9.525%31%
10.516%20%
Each team on its own
Millwallwe expect 4.5, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 46%
Lincolnwe expect 3.0, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 36%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 21.3 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.561%56%
20.554%46%
21.547%37%
22.540%33%
Each team on its own
Millwallwe expect 10.5, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 59%
Lincolnwe expect 10.9, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 52%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.565%66%
3.544%50%
4.526%32%
5.513%19%
Each team on its own
Millwallwe expect 1.6, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Lincolnwe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lincoln: newly promoted
- Lincoln played 3 days ago
- Millwall: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 14 |
| 17 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7:11 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Millwall vs Lincoln?
Millwall are the favourites. Chances: Millwall win 50%, draw 26%, Lincoln win 24%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Lincoln?
Expected goals: 2.7 (Millwall 1.6, Lincoln 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Lincoln?
The chance that both teams score is 53%.
When is Millwall vs Lincoln?
The Championship match kicks off 17 October 2026, 12:30 (UK time).