ChampionshipMatchday 10

Millwall 0-1 Swansea: prediction, tips and result

·

Millwall
4-01-32-22-21-0
0-1Full time(half time 0-0)
Swansea
2-12-13-11-30-0

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Offsides – Millwall: Over 2.5Won71%

Millwall: 3.4 offsides a match, Swansea's opponents were caught offside 4.1 times on average, league average 1.9; our numbers for Millwall: 3.8 offsides against a league average of 1.9

Other tips

  • Fouls – Swansea: Under 9.5Won57%

    Swansea: under 9.5 fouls in 6 of their last 9 league matches, Millwall's opponents committed under 9.5 in 7 of 9 (36% of league matches); our numbers for Swansea: 9.2 fouls against a league average of 10.6

  • Shots on Target – Millwall: Under 4.5Won64%

    Millwall: 3.8 shots on target a match, Swansea's opponents had 3.2 on average, league average 4.4

For the brave
Correct Score: 1:1Lost13%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloMillwall162241%41%Draw28%28%Swansea162631%31%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%51%O2.546%46%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.1not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Millwall2:1SwanseaW
  2. Swansea1:1MillwallD
  3. Millwall1:0SwanseaW
  4. Swansea0:1MillwallW
  5. Swansea0:1MillwallW
Millwall's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses1.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 14
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.8under 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.lost · ended 5
Refereeawaiting appointment
Dutching(several bets at once)70%X22:1coverageleague 68% · H2H 2/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.2total 2.6Attack/defence1.4 : 1.1total 2.5
Millwall : Swansea
Most likely scores
Market1-114%1-010%0-09%2-19%2-0—0-18%Attack/defence1-113%1-011%0-08%2-19%2-08%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%1-01-010%1-011%0-00-09%0-08%2-12-19%2-19%2-02-0—2-08%0-10-18%0-18%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals75%76%76%
Over 1.5 goals73%71%71%
12 – no draw72%73%73%
1X – home team avoid defeat69%72%72%
X2 – away team avoid defeat59%55%55%
Under 2.5 goals54%54%54%
Both teams to score: yes52%51%51%
Both teams to score: no48%49%49%
Over 2.5 goals46%46%46%
1 – Millwall win41%45% · Elo 41%45%· Elo 41%
2 – Swansea win31%28% · Elo 31%28%· Elo 31%
X – draw28%27% · Elo 28%27%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals27%29%29%
Over 3.5 goals25%24%24%
Attack vs defence
Millwall attack vs Swansea defenceattack1520defence1531−11 pts to the attack
Swansea attack vs Millwall defenceattack1495defence1544−49 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.553%56%
8.540%40%
9.528%30%
10.519%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Millwallwe expect 4.0, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 37%
Swanseawe expect 3.8, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 19.9 in this match, 20.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.551%56%
20.543%46%
21.536%36%
22.529%32%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Millwallwe expect 10.6, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 59%
Swanseawe expect 9.2, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 32%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 75%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 25%over
We expect 5.2 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.588%66%
3.575%49%
4.558%31%
5.541%18%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Millwallwe expect 3.8, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 87%
Swanseawe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 47%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Swansea: 23 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Millwall played 3 days ago
  • Swansea played 3 days ago

League form

Millwall

Swansea

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Swansea1072116:723
10Millwall1042416:1614
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Millwall vs Swansea?

Millwall 0-1 Swansea (half time 0-0).

Did the Millwall vs Swansea tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Offsides – Millwall: Over 2.5. The tip won.

See also