ChampionshipMatchday 9

Swansea 2-1 Norwich: prediction, tips and result

·

Swansea
2-00-01-33-12-1
2-1Full time(half time 0-1)
Norwich
3-43-42-13-10-1
Stadium:
Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
Referee:
Andrew Kitchen

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Corners: Under 10.5Won58%

8.5 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 9.4 in the visitors', league average 10.4; under 10.5 corners in 6 of the hosts' last 8 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 8 (54% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Offsides: Over 4.5Won58%

    6.0 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 6.5 in the visitors', league average 3.7; our numbers: 5.2 offsides against a league average of 3.7

  • Fouls – Norwich: Over 10.5Lost60%

    our numbers for Norwich: 11.7 fouls against a league average of 10.6

For the brave
Corners: Under 9.5Won46%

8.5 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 9.4 in the visitors', league average 10.4; under 9.5 corners in 6 of the hosts' last 8 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 8 (44% of league matches)

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloSwansea162640%43%Draw27%28%Norwich159733%30%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%56%O2.554%53%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.3both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Norwich1:1SwanseaD
  2. Swansea2:1NorwichW
  3. Norwich5:1SwanseaL
  4. Swansea1:0NorwichW
  5. Norwich2:2SwanseaD
Swansea's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 10.4under 10.5: 58%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 5
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.8under 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.won · ended 2
RefereeA. Kitchen−0.7 yellow cards vs average36 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)70%X22:1coverageleague 68% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.4total 2.9Attack/defence1.5 : 1.3total 2.8
Swansea : Norwich
Most likely scores
Market1-113%2-19%1-08%1-28%0-17%2-0—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%1-27%0-17%2-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-08%1-09%1-21-28%1-27%0-10-17%0-17%2-02-0—2-07%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals78%77%77%
12 – no draw73%74%74%
Under 3.5 goals68%69%69%
1X – home team avoid defeat67%69%69%
X2 – away team avoid defeat60%57%57%
Both teams to score: yes58%56%56%
Over 2.5 goals54%53%53%
Under 2.5 goals46%47%47%
Both teams to score: no42%44%44%
1 – Swansea win40%43% · Elo 43%43%· Elo 43%
2 – Norwich win33%31% · Elo 30%31%· Elo 30%
Over 3.5 goals32%31%31%
X – draw27%26% · Elo 28%26%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals22%23%23%
Attack vs defence
Swansea attack vs Norwich defenceattack1493defence1478+15 pts to the attack
Norwich attack vs Swansea defenceattack1564defence1531+33 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 58%close to the league averageunder 42%over
We expect 8.3 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.571%67%
7.558%55%
8.545%39%
9.533%29%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Swanseawe expect 4.8, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 51%
Norwichwe expect 3.8, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 50%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 20.9 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.558%57%
20.550%47%
21.543%37%
22.536%33%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Swanseawe expect 9.6, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 49%
Norwichwe expect 11.7, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 60%
Referee: 19.9 fouls per match on average (35 matches in our data)−0.5 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 75%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 25%over
We expect 5.2 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.588%66%
3.575%48%
4.558%31%
5.541%19%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Swanseawe expect 2.9, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 76%
Norwichwe expect 2.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 70%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Norwich concede 2.0 goals per game
  • Norwich: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Swansea: 21 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Norwich: only 10 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Swansea: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Norwich: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Swansea

Norwich

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Swansea1072116:723
19Norwich930617:199
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Swansea vs Norwich?

Swansea 2-1 Norwich (half time 0-1).

Did the Swansea vs Norwich tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Corners: Under 10.5. The tip won.

See also