ChampionshipMatchday 12
Sheffield United vs Derby: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%O2.550%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Derby1:2Sheffield UnitedW
- Sheffield United1:3DerbyL
- Derby0:1Sheffield UnitedW
- Sheffield United1:0DerbyW
- Derby2:0Sheffield UnitedL
Sheffield United's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.4under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 3.8over 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.6 : 1.1total 2.6Attack/defence1.6 : 1.1total 2.7
Sheffield United : DerbyMost likely scores
Model1-113%1-011%2-19%2-09%0-08%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-010%2-19%2-08%0-07%0-17%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%1-01-011%1-010%2-12-19%2-19%2-02-09%2-08%0-00-08%0-07%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 75%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%74% | 74% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 52%53% | 53% |
| 1 – Sheffield United win | 48%47% · Elo 46% | 47%· Elo 46% |
| X – draw | 26%26% · Elo 27% | 26%· Elo 27% |
| 2 – Derby win | 25%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
Attack vs defence
Sheffield United attack vs Derby defenceattack1528defence1493+35 pts to the attack
Derby attack vs Sheffield United defenceattack1475defence1500−25 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 39%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.552%56%
8.539%40%
9.527%31%
10.518%20%
Each team on its own
Sheffield Unitedwe expect 4.6, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 48%
Derbywe expect 3.2, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 40%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 21.9 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.565%56%
20.558%46%
21.551%37%
22.544%33%
Each team on its own
Sheffield Unitedwe expect 9.2, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 44%
Derbywe expect 13.0, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 72%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over
We expect 4.2 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.578%66%
3.559%50%
4.540%32%
5.524%19%
Each team on its own
Sheffield Unitedwe expect 2.1, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 61%
Derbywe expect 2.1, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 61%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Derby: only 6 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 12 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Sheffield United: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Derby: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sheffield United | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:11 | 12 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:15 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sheffield United vs Derby?
Sheffield United are the favourites. Chances: Sheffield United win 48%, draw 26%, Derby win 25%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Sheffield United vs Derby?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Sheffield United 1.6, Derby 1.1). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Sheffield United vs Derby?
The Championship match kicks off 24 October 2026, 12:30 (UK time).