ChampionshipMatchday 11
Derby vs Stoke: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 6hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%52%O2.547%48%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Derby2:0StokeW
- Stoke3:1DerbyL
- Derby0:0StokeD
- Stoke2:1DerbyL
- Stoke1:2DerbyW
Derby's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.4under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.8over 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.3total 2.6Attack/defence1.5 : 1.1total 2.6
Derby : StokeMost likely scores
Market1-114%1-09%2-18%0-19%0-09%2-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%2-19%0-18%0-08%2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%1-01-09%1-011%2-12-18%2-19%0-10-19%0-18%0-00-09%0-08%2-02-0—2-08%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74%74% | 74% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%73% | 73% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 65%72% | 72% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 63%54% | 54% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53%52% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47%48% | 48% |
| Both teams to score: no | 47%48% | 48% |
| 1 – Derby win | 37%46% · Elo 44% | 46%· Elo 44% |
| 2 – Stoke win | 35%28% · Elo 29% | 28%· Elo 29% |
| X – draw | 28%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26%27% | 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26%26% | 26% |
Attack vs defence
Derby attack vs Stoke defenceattack1475defence1473+2 pts to the attack
Stoke attack vs Derby defenceattack1454defence1493−39 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 8.0 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.554%56%
8.541%40%
9.529%31%
10.519%20%
Each team on its own
Derbywe expect 4.3, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 43%
Stokewe expect 3.6, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 48%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over
We expect 22.0 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.566%56%
20.559%46%
21.551%37%
22.544%33%
Each team on its own
Derbywe expect 11.0, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 64%
Stokewe expect 11.2, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 55%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 4.0 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.576%66%
3.556%50%
4.537%32%
5.522%19%
Each team on its own
Derbywe expect 2.1, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 61%
Stokewe expect 1.9, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 57%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Stoke: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Derby: only 6 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 12 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Derby played 3 days ago
- Stoke: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Stoke | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17:16 | 16 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:15 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Derby vs Stoke?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Derby win 37%, draw 28%, Stoke win 35%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Stoke?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Derby 1.3, Stoke 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Stoke?
The chance that both teams score is 53%.
When is Derby vs Stoke?
The Championship match kicks off 17 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).