ChampionshipMatchday 12
Stoke vs Bristol City: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%O2.547%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Bristol City2:0StokeL
- Stoke5:1Bristol CityW
- Bristol City2:0StokeL
- Stoke2:2Bristol CityD
- Stoke4:0Bristol CityW
Stoke's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses3.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.4under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.3 : 1.1total 2.4Attack/defence1.4 : 1.2total 2.5
Stoke : Bristol CityMost likely scores
Model1-114%1-011%0-09%0-19%2-18%1-2—Attack/defence1-113%1-010%0-08%0-19%2-19%1-28%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%1-01-011%1-010%0-00-09%0-08%0-10-19%0-19%2-12-18%2-19%1-21-2—1-28%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 71%73% | 73% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 68%68% | 68% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 61%60% | 60% |
| 1 – Stoke win | 39%40% · Elo 39% | 40%· Elo 39% |
| 2 – Bristol City win | 32%32% · Elo 33% | 32%· Elo 33% |
| X – draw | 29%27% · Elo 28% | 27%· Elo 28% |
Attack vs defence
Stoke attack vs Bristol City defenceattack1454defence1502−48 pts to the attack
Bristol City attack vs Stoke defenceattack1477defence1473+4 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.553%56%
8.540%40%
9.528%31%
10.519%20%
Each team on its own
Stokewe expect 3.8, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 33%
Bristol Citywe expect 3.9, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 22.3 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.567%56%
20.560%46%
21.553%37%
22.546%33%
Each team on its own
Stokewe expect 11.5, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 68%
Bristol Citywe expect 11.0, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 53%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.568%66%
3.547%50%
4.528%32%
5.515%19%
Each team on its own
Stokewe expect 1.9, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 56%
Bristol Citywe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Stoke: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Stoke: 7 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Bristol City: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Stoke | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17:16 | 16 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12:14 | 14 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Stoke vs Bristol City?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Stoke win 39%, draw 29%, Bristol City win 32%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Stoke vs Bristol City?
Expected goals: 2.4 (Stoke 1.3, Bristol City 1.1). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Stoke vs Bristol City?
The Championship match kicks off 24 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).