League TwoMatchday 9
Barnet vs York: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 13d 13hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%O2.561%54%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.2
H2Hlast 4 meetings
- York1:1BarnetD
- Barnet3:1YorkW
- York1:2BarnetW
- Barnet1:3YorkL
Barnet's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 9.9over 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.7under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.8 : 1.4total 3.2Attack/defence1.6 : 1.2total 2.9
Barnet : YorkMost likely scores
Model1-110%2-19%1-08%2-07%1-27%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%2-08%1-27%0-17%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-110%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-08%1-09%2-02-07%2-08%1-21-27%1-27%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 71%71% | 71% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61%68% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%54% | 54% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 52%54% | 54% |
| 1 – Barnet win | 48%46% · Elo 55% | 46%· Elo 55% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%46% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39%32% | 32% |
| 2 – York win | 29%29% · Elo 21% | 29%· Elo 21% |
| X – draw | 23%25% · Elo 25% | 25%· Elo 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Barnet attack vs York defenceattack1635defence1520+115 pts to the attack
York attack vs Barnet defenceattack1565defence1507+58 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 7.6 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.563%61%
7.549%45%
8.536%27%
9.524%17%
Each team on its own
Barnetwe expect 4.2, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 40%
Yorkwe expect 3.5, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 46%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 52%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 20.6 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.556%61%
20.548%57%
21.541%51%
22.534%45%
Each team on its own
Barnetwe expect 10.8, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 51%
Yorkwe expect 9.7, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 38%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.567%58%
3.545%41%
4.527%28%
5.514%11%
Each team on its own
Barnetwe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Yorkwe expect 2.0, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 59%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Barnet score 2.8 goals per game
- Barnet: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Barnet: unbeaten in 17 matches
- Barnet: 24 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 17 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- York: newly promoted
- Barnet played 3 days ago
- York: 3 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20:11 | 18 |
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17:11 | 15 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Barnet vs York?
Barnet are the favourites. Chances: Barnet win 48%, draw 23%, York win 29%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Barnet vs York?
Expected goals: 3.2 (Barnet 1.8, York 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Barnet vs York?
The League Two match kicks off 27 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).