League TwoMatchday 13
York vs Port Vale: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%O2.546%44%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.1
H2Hlast 2 meetings
- York0:2Port ValeL
- Port Vale2:2YorkD
York's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss3.0 goals per match
too few to read anything intoCornersleague corners10.0league 9.9over 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.7under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.5 : 1.1total 2.5Attack/defence1.4 : 1.1total 2.5
York : Port ValeMost likely scores
Model1-112%1-012%2-19%0-0—0-18%2-09%Attack/defence1-113%1-012%2-19%0-09%0-19%2-08%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-012%1-012%2-12-19%2-19%0-00-0—0-09%0-10-18%0-19%2-02-09%2-08%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 75%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%72% | 72% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 73%71% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%70% | 70% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54%56% | 56% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 53%56% | 56% |
| 1 – York win | 47%44% · Elo 32% | 44%· Elo 32% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46%44% | 44% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%30% | 30% |
| 2 – Port Vale win | 27%29% · Elo 41% | 29%· Elo 41% |
| X – draw | 26%28% · Elo 28% | 28%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
York attack vs Port Vale defenceattack1565defence1538+27 pts to the attack
Port Vale attack vs York defenceattack1499defence1520−21 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 7.3 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.559%61%
7.545%45%
8.532%27%
9.521%17%
Each team on its own
Yorkwe expect 4.3, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 42%
Port Valewe expect 3.1, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 37%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 55%close to the league averageunder 45%over
We expect 21.5 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.562%61%
20.555%57%
21.548%51%
22.541%45%
Each team on its own
Yorkwe expect 9.2, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 33%
Port Valewe expect 12.4, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 67%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 47%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.568%58%
3.547%41%
4.528%28%
5.515%11%
Each team on its own
Yorkwe expect 2.2, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 64%
Port Valewe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- York: newly promoted
- Port Vale: newly promoted
- York: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Port Vale: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17:11 | 15 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4:9 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win York vs Port Vale?
York are the favourites. Chances: York win 47%, draw 26%, Port Vale win 27%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in York vs Port Vale?
Expected goals: 2.5 (York 1.5, Port Vale 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is York vs Port Vale?
The League Two match kicks off 24 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).