League TwoMatchday 13
Bristol Rvs vs Swindon: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 6hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%O2.556%48%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Swindon1:1Bristol RvsD
- Bristol Rvs0:3SwindonL
- Swindon1:1Bristol RvsD
- Bristol Rvs1:3SwindonL
- Bristol Rvs0:1SwindonL
Bristol Rvs's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 9.9over 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.7under 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.5 : 1.4total 2.9Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.6
Bristol Rvs : SwindonMost likely scores
Model1-111%1-08%2-19%0-17%1-28%2-0—0-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-010%2-19%0-18%1-2—2-08%0-08%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-113%1-01-08%1-010%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-17%0-18%1-21-28%1-2—2-02-0—2-08%0-00-0—0-08%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 65%70% | 70% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 59%56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56%48% | 48% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44%52% | 52% |
| 1 – Bristol Rvs win | 41%44% · Elo 43% | 44%· Elo 43% |
| 2 – Swindon win | 35%30% · Elo 30% | 30%· Elo 30% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34%26% | 26% |
| X – draw | 25%27% · Elo 28% | 27%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21%27% | 27% |
Attack vs defence
Bristol Rvs attack vs Swindon defenceattack1534defence1478+56 pts to the attack
Swindon attack vs Bristol Rvs defenceattack1515defence1493+22 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 7.8 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.565%61%
7.551%45%
8.538%27%
9.526%17%
Each team on its own
Bristol Rvswe expect 5.5, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 63%
Swindonwe expect 2.8, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 30%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 73%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 27%
We expect 17.7 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.534%61%
20.527%57%
21.521%51%
22.516%45%
Each team on its own
Bristol Rvswe expect 8.1, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 21%
Swindonwe expect 9.2, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 33%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.564%58%
3.542%41%
4.524%28%
5.512%11%
Each team on its own
Bristol Rvswe expect 1.8, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Swindonwe expect 1.5, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Swindon matches average only 2.4 cards (league 3.8) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Swindon matches average 12.1 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Swindon score a lot late on: 8 of 20 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Bristol Rvs: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Swindon: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bristol Rvs | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15:17 | 15 |
| 17 | Swindon | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9:14 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bristol Rvs vs Swindon?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Bristol Rvs win 41%, draw 25%, Swindon win 35%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Bristol Rvs vs Swindon?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Bristol Rvs 1.5, Swindon 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Bristol Rvs vs Swindon?
The League Two match kicks off 24 October 2026, 12:30 (UK time).