League TwoMatchday 13
Cheltenham vs Newport County: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 6hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%O2.557%52%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Cheltenham1:0Newport CountyW
- Newport County0:2CheltenhamW
- Newport County0:3CheltenhamW
- Cheltenham3:2Newport CountyW
- Newport County1:0CheltenhamL
Cheltenham's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.9over 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 3.7over 3.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.7 : 1.3total 3.0Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.8
Cheltenham : Newport CountyMost likely scores
Model1-111%1-09%2-19%2-07%0-1—1-27%Attack/defence1-112%1-010%2-19%2-08%0-17%1-27%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-01-09%1-010%2-12-19%2-19%2-02-07%2-08%0-10-1—0-17%1-21-27%1-27%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 71%70% | 70% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66%70% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57%52% | 52% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 53%55% | 55% |
| 1 – Cheltenham win | 47%45% · Elo 46% | 45%· Elo 46% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43%48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%30% | 30% |
| 2 – Newport County win | 29%30% · Elo 27% | 30%· Elo 27% |
| X – draw | 24%26% · Elo 27% | 26%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Cheltenham attack vs Newport County defenceattack1511defence1423+88 pts to the attack
Newport County attack vs Cheltenham defenceattack1439defence1391+48 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 7.5 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.561%61%
7.547%45%
8.534%27%
9.523%17%
Each team on its own
Cheltenhamwe expect 4.7, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 49%
Newport Countywe expect 3.0, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 35%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 51%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 20.7 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.556%61%
20.549%57%
21.542%51%
22.535%45%
Each team on its own
Cheltenhamwe expect 11.2, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 55%
Newport Countywe expect 9.4, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 35%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 39%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.561%58%
3.539%41%
4.521%28%
5.510%11%
Each team on its own
Cheltenhamwe expect 1.7, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Newport Countywe expect 1.5, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16:16 | 15 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cheltenham vs Newport County?
Cheltenham are the favourites. Chances: Cheltenham win 47%, draw 24%, Newport County win 29%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Cheltenham vs Newport County?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Cheltenham 1.7, Newport County 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 57%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Cheltenham vs Newport County?
The League Two match kicks off 24 October 2026, 12:30 (UK time).