League TwoMatchday 13
Chesterfield vs Crewe: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS49%O2.546%45%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Chesterfield2:0CreweW
- Crewe3:3ChesterfieldD
- Chesterfield1:3CreweL
- Crewe0:5ChesterfieldW
- Chesterfield0:2CreweL
Chesterfield's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses3.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.9over 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.7over 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.5 : 1.1total 2.5Attack/defence1.4 : 1.0total 2.5
Chesterfield : CreweMost likely scores
Model1-113%1-012%2-19%0-0—2-08%0-19%Attack/defence1-113%1-012%2-19%0-09%2-09%0-18%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-012%1-012%2-12-19%2-19%0-00-0—0-09%2-02-08%2-09%0-10-19%0-18%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 75%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%73% | 73% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 72%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%71% | 71% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 54%54% | 54% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54%55% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46%45% | 45% |
| 1 – Chesterfield win | 46%46% · Elo 45% | 46%· Elo 45% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%29% | 29% |
| 2 – Crewe win | 28%27% · Elo 28% | 27%· Elo 28% |
| X – draw | 26%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Chesterfield attack vs Crewe defenceattack1577defence1531+46 pts to the attack
Crewe attack vs Chesterfield defenceattack1496defence1533−37 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 48%over
We expect 7.8 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.566%61%
7.552%45%
8.539%27%
9.527%17%
Each team on its own
Chesterfieldwe expect 5.7, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 65%
Crewewe expect 2.7, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 29%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 58%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 42%
We expect 19.8 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.550%61%
20.542%57%
21.535%51%
22.529%45%
Each team on its own
Chesterfieldwe expect 8.8, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 28%
Crewewe expect 10.9, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 51%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.560%58%
3.538%41%
4.521%28%
5.510%11%
Each team on its own
Chesterfieldwe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Crewewe expect 1.8, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Crewe: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Crewe: unbeaten in 11 matches
- Chesterfield: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Crewe: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12:7 | 18 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17:14 | 15 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chesterfield vs Crewe?
Chesterfield are the favourites. Chances: Chesterfield win 46%, draw 26%, Crewe win 28%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Chesterfield vs Crewe?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Chesterfield 1.5, Crewe 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Chesterfield vs Crewe?
The League Two match kicks off 24 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).