League TwoMatchday 13
Exeter vs Fleetwood Town: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS44%O2.528%38%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Exeter1:1Fleetwood TownD
- Fleetwood Town3:0ExeterL
- Fleetwood Town2:2ExeterD
- Exeter2:1Fleetwood TownW
- Exeter3:0Fleetwood TownW
Exeter's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 9.9over 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.7over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.0 : 0.8total 1.8Attack/defence1.3 : 1.0total 2.2
Exeter : Fleetwood TownMost likely scores
Model1-016%0-016%1-113%0-113%2-08%2-1—Attack/defence1-013%0-011%1-114%0-110%2-09%2-18%
ModelAttack/defence1-01-016%1-013%0-00-016%0-011%1-11-113%1-114%0-10-113%0-110%2-02-08%2-09%2-12-1—2-18%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 89%82% | 82% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 72%62% | 62% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 72%72% | 72% |
| 12 – no draw | 68%71% | 71% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 61%57% | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55%65% | 65% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 45%35% | 35% |
| 1 – Exeter win | 39%43% · Elo 55% | 43%· Elo 55% |
| X – draw | 32%29% · Elo 25% | 29%· Elo 25% |
| 2 – Fleetwood Town win | 28%28% · Elo 21% | 28%· Elo 21% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28%38% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12%18% | 18% |
Attack vs defence
Exeter attack vs Fleetwood Town defenceattack1479defence1504−25 pts to the attack
Fleetwood Town attack vs Exeter defenceattack1482defence1562−80 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 6.9 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.554%61%
7.539%45%
8.527%27%
9.517%17%
Each team on its own
Exeterwe expect 3.9, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 35%
Fleetwood Townwe expect 2.8, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 31%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 21.2 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.560%61%
20.553%57%
21.546%51%
22.539%45%
Each team on its own
Exeterwe expect 9.5, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 37%
Fleetwood Townwe expect 11.7, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 60%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.562%58%
3.540%41%
4.522%28%
5.511%11%
Each team on its own
Exeterwe expect 1.9, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Fleetwood Townwe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Exeter: only 1 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Exeter concede only 0.6 goals per game
- Exeter score only 0.6 goals per game
- Exeter: newly promoted
- Exeter: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Fleetwood Town: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Exeter | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6:6 | 12 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10:11 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Exeter vs Fleetwood Town?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Exeter win 39%, draw 32%, Fleetwood Town win 28%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Exeter vs Fleetwood Town?
Expected goals: 1.8 (Exeter 1.0, Fleetwood Town 0.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 28%. Most likely score: 1-0.
When is Exeter vs Fleetwood Town?
The League Two match kicks off 24 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).