League TwoMatchday 13
Rochdale vs Accrington: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS45%O2.542%39%|exp. goals 1.3 : 0.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Rochdale3:1AccringtonW
- Accrington2:1RochdaleL
- Accrington1:2RochdaleW
- Rochdale2:1AccringtonW
- Accrington0:1RochdaleW
Rochdale's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 9.9over 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.7under 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.4 : 1.0total 2.4Attack/defence1.3 : 0.9total 2.2
Rochdale : AccringtonMost likely scores
Model1-013%1-113%0-09%0-110%2-0—2-19%Attack/defence1-014%1-113%0-011%0-110%2-09%2-19%
ModelAttack/defence1-01-013%1-014%1-11-113%1-113%0-00-09%0-011%0-10-110%0-110%2-02-0—2-09%2-12-19%2-19%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 78%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%71% | 71% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 72%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69%66% | 66% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58%61% | 61% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 56%55% | 55% |
| 1 – Rochdale win | 44%45% · Elo 41% | 45%· Elo 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42%39% | 39% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31%34% | 34% |
| 2 – Accrington win | 28%26% · Elo 32% | 26%· Elo 32% |
| X – draw | 27%29% · Elo 28% | 29%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Rochdale attack vs Accrington defenceattack1484defence1485−1 pts to the attack
Accrington attack vs Rochdale defenceattack1432defence1530−98 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 7.0 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.555%61%
7.540%45%
8.528%27%
9.518%17%
Each team on its own
Rochdalewe expect 4.0, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 37%
Accringtonwe expect 2.8, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 32%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 19.4 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.547%61%
20.540%57%
21.533%51%
22.527%45%
Each team on its own
Rochdalewe expect 8.5, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 25%
Accringtonwe expect 10.8, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 50%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.563%58%
3.541%41%
4.523%28%
5.512%11%
Each team on its own
Rochdalewe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Accringtonwe expect 1.9, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Rochdale: newly promoted
- Rochdale: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Accrington: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:12 | 14 |
| 15 | Accrington | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:14 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Rochdale vs Accrington?
Rochdale are the favourites. Chances: Rochdale win 44%, draw 27%, Accrington win 28%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Rochdale vs Accrington?
Expected goals: 2.4 (Rochdale 1.4, Accrington 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 42%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Rochdale vs Accrington?
The League Two match kicks off 24 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).