Premier LeagueMatchday 8
Aston Villa vs Man City: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%58%O2.562%56%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.7
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Man City1:2Aston VillaW
- Aston Villa1:0Man CityW
- Man City2:1Aston VillaL
- Aston Villa2:1Man CityW
- Man City4:1Aston VillaL
Aston Villa's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 9.9over 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.8over 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 2.1total 3.2Attack/defence1.2 : 1.7total 2.9
Aston Villa : Man CityMost likely scores
Market1-110%1-210%0-29%0-18%1-37%2-1—1-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-210%0-28%0-19%1-3—2-17%1-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-112%1-21-210%1-210%0-20-29%0-28%0-10-18%0-19%1-31-37%1-3—2-12-1—2-17%1-01-0—1-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%79% | 79% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 80%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%75% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62%56% | 56% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61%67% | 67% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60%58% | 58% |
| 2 – Man City win | 58%48% · Elo 41% | 48%· Elo 41% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 42%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: no | 40%42% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39%33% | 33% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38%44% | 44% |
| X – draw | 22%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| 1 – Aston Villa win | 20%27% · Elo 31% | 27%· Elo 31% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Aston Villa attack vs Man City defenceattack1497defence1623−126 pts to the attack
Man City attack vs Aston Villa defenceattack1651defence1492+159 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.561%57%
8.548%45%
9.536%32%
10.525%21%
Each team on its own
Aston Villawe expect 4.1, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Man Citywe expect 4.5, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 65%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 20.8 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.550%52%
21.543%46%
22.536%36%
23.530%30%
Each team on its own
Aston Villawe expect 10.3, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 45%
Man Citywe expect 10.5, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 47%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.570%63%
3.549%43%
4.530%23%
5.516%13%
Each team on its own
Aston Villawe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 51%
Man Citywe expect 1.9, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 56%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Man City score 2.4 goals per game
- Aston Villa: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Man City: 6 wins in a row
- Aston Villa: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Man City: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16:5 | 18 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6:11 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Aston Villa vs Man City?
Man City are the favourites. Chances: Aston Villa win 20%, draw 22%, Man City win 58%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Man City?
Expected goals: 3.2 (Aston Villa 1.1, Man City 2.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 62%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Man City?
The chance that both teams score is 60%.
When is Aston Villa vs Man City?
The Premier League match kicks off 24 October 2026, 12:30 (UK time).