Ligue 1Matchday 8
Lens vs Paris FC: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%53%O2.560%53%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.0
H2Hlast 3 meetings
- Paris FC0:5LensW
- Lens2:1Paris FCW
- Paris FC1:1LensD
Lens's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses3.3 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.6over 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.6under 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 1.4total 3.1Attack/defence1.8 : 1.0total 2.8
Lens : Paris FCMost likely scores
Market1-111%1-07%2-19%2-07%1-27%0-0—0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-011%2-110%2-010%1-2—0-07%0-16%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-01-07%1-011%2-12-19%2-110%2-02-07%2-010%1-21-27%1-2—0-00-0—0-07%0-10-1—0-16%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 71%79% | 79% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63%70% | 70% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62%53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%53% | 53% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 54%46% | 46% |
| 1 – Lens win | 46%54% · Elo 56% | 54%· Elo 56% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40%48% | 48% |
| Both teams to score: no | 38%47% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37%30% | 30% |
| 2 – Paris FC win | 29%22% · Elo 20% | 22%· Elo 20% |
| X – draw | 25%24% · Elo 24% | 24%· Elo 24% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Lens attack vs Paris FC defenceattack1598defence1517+81 pts to the attack
Paris FC attack vs Lens defenceattack1456defence1556−100 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 8.4 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.559%60%
8.546%49%
9.533%38%
10.523%28%
Each team on its own
Lenswe expect 4.6, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 47%
Paris FCwe expect 3.7, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 20.4 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.547%53%
21.540%47%
22.533%41%
23.527%36%
Each team on its own
Lenswe expect 9.8, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 39%
Paris FCwe expect 10.4, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 47%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.564%63%
3.543%43%
4.525%26%
5.513%14%
Each team on its own
Lenswe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Paris FCwe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 51%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lens matches average 12.4 corners (league 9.6) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Lens: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Paris FC: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:4 | 11 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11:10 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lens vs Paris FC?
Lens are the favourites. Chances: Lens win 46%, draw 25%, Paris FC win 29%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Paris FC?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Lens 1.7, Paris FC 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Paris FC?
The chance that both teams score is 62%.
When is Lens vs Paris FC?
The Ligue 1 match kicks off 24 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).