Ligue 1Matchday 7
Lorient vs Monaco: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%55%O2.549%51%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Monaco1:3LorientW
- Lorient3:1MonacoW
- Monaco2:2LorientD
- Lorient2:2MonacoD
- Monaco3:1LorientL
Lorient's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss4.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.5league 9.6under 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.5 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.6under 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 1.5total 2.6Attack/defence1.3 : 1.4total 2.7
Lorient : MonacoMost likely scores
Market1-113%0-110%1-29%1-0—0-28%0-08%2-1—Attack/defence1-113%0-19%1-29%1-08%0-2—0-07%2-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%0-10-110%0-19%1-21-29%1-29%1-01-0—1-08%0-20-28%0-2—0-00-08%0-07%2-12-1—2-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%75% | 75% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 73%66% | 66% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73%71% | 71% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 54%61% | 61% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53%55% | 55% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51%49% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49%51% | 51% |
| Both teams to score: no | 47%45% | 45% |
| 2 – Monaco win | 46%39% · Elo 47% | 39%· Elo 47% |
| 1 – Lorient win | 27%35% · Elo 27% | 35%· Elo 27% |
| X – draw | 27%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27%29% | 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
Lorient attack vs Monaco defenceattack1441defence1522−81 pts to the attack
Monaco attack vs Lorient defenceattack1576defence1501+75 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.560%60%
8.547%49%
9.535%38%
10.524%28%
Each team on its own
Lorientwe expect 4.6, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 48%
Monacowe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 20.5 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.548%53%
21.541%47%
22.534%41%
23.528%36%
Each team on its own
Lorientwe expect 9.4, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 35%
Monacowe expect 11.0, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 53%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.564%63%
3.542%43%
4.524%26%
5.512%14%
Each team on its own
Lorientwe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Monacowe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:6 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lorient vs Monaco?
Monaco are the favourites. Chances: Lorient win 27%, draw 27%, Monaco win 46%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Monaco?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Lorient 1.1, Monaco 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Monaco?
The chance that both teams score is 53%.
When is Lorient vs Monaco?
The Ligue 1 match kicks off 18 October 2026, 16:15 (UK time).