BundesligaMatchday 6
Hamburg vs Stuttgart: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS68%65%O2.569%64%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Stuttgart4:0HamburgL
- Hamburg2:1StuttgartW
- Hamburg1:3StuttgartL
- Stuttgart3:0HamburgL
- Stuttgart3:2HamburgL
Hamburg's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses3.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 9.9over 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.6under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 2.1total 3.5Attack/defence1.4 : 1.9total 3.3
Hamburg : StuttgartMost likely scores
Market1-19%1-29%2-1—1-37%2-27%0-27%0-1—Attack/defence1-110%1-29%2-17%1-3—2-27%0-26%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-110%1-21-29%1-29%2-12-1—2-17%1-31-37%1-3—2-22-27%2-27%0-20-27%0-26%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%84% | 84% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%77% | 77% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 76%70% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69%64% | 64% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68%65% | 65% |
| 2 – Stuttgart win | 53%47% · Elo 55% | 47%· Elo 55% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 52%58% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48%42% | 42% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 47%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: no | 32%35% | 35% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31%36% | 36% |
| 1 – Hamburg win | 24%30% · Elo 20% | 30%· Elo 20% |
| X – draw | 23%23% · Elo 25% | 23%· Elo 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12%16% | 16% |
Attack vs defence
Hamburg attack vs Stuttgart defenceattack1403defence1515−112 pts to the attack
Stuttgart attack vs Hamburg defenceattack1584defence1428+156 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 10.3 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.569%61%
9.557%48%
10.546%36%
11.535%28%
Each team on its own
Hamburgwe expect 5.3, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 44%
Stuttgartwe expect 5.3, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 59%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over
We expect 21.0 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.566%59%
19.559%53%
20.551%46%
21.544%39%
Each team on its own
Hamburgwe expect 11.0, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 64%
Stuttgartwe expect 10.1, league average 10.0 · chance of over 9.5: 54%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.562%66%
3.541%46%
4.523%30%
5.511%16%
Each team on its own
Hamburgwe expect 1.8, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Stuttgartwe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Hamburg concede 2.4 goals per game
- Stuttgart concede 2.0 goals per game
- Hamburg: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Stuttgart matches average 12.6 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Hamburg: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Stuttgart: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5:15 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Hamburg vs Stuttgart?
Stuttgart are the favourites. Chances: Hamburg win 24%, draw 23%, Stuttgart win 53%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Hamburg vs Stuttgart?
Expected goals: 3.5 (Hamburg 1.4, Stuttgart 2.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 69%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Hamburg vs Stuttgart?
The chance that both teams score is 68%.
When is Hamburg vs Stuttgart?
The Bundesliga match kicks off 17 October 2026, 14:30 (UK time).