BundesligaMatchday 5
Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburg: prediction, tips and result
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- Stadium:
- SNP Arena, Sinsheim
- Referee:
- Harm Osmers
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Cards – Hoffenheim (yellow=1, red=2): Over 1.5Won68%
our numbers for Hoffenheim: 2.4 card points against a league average of 1.9; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total
Other tips
- Shots on Target – Hoffenheim: Over 5.5Lost65%
our numbers for Hoffenheim: 6.8 shots on target against a league average of 5.3
For the brave
Cards – Hoffenheim (yellow=1, red=2): Over 2.5Won42%
our numbers for Hoffenheim: 2.4 card points against a league average of 1.9; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%62%O2.569%66%|exp. goals 2.2 : 1.2both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Hamburg1:2HoffenheimW
- Hoffenheim4:1HamburgW
- Hoffenheim2:0HamburgW
- Hamburg3:0HoffenheimL
- Hamburg2:1HoffenheimL
Hoffenheim's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 9.9over 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 9.5 corners.won · ended 10
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.1league 3.6over 3.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 4.1 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.lost · ended 2
RefereeH. Osmers+0.4 yellow cards vs average23 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)70%BTTS yes2:0coverageleague 65% · H2H 4/5covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.5 : 1.1total 3.6Attack/defence2.2 : 1.2total 3.4
Hoffenheim : HamburgMost likely scores
Market2-19%1-18%2-09%3-18%1-0—3-07%Attack/defence2-110%1-19%2-08%3-17%1-07%3-06%
MarketAttack/defence2-12-19%2-110%1-11-18%1-19%2-02-09%2-08%3-13-18%3-17%1-01-0—1-07%3-03-07%3-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%85% | 85% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 86%80% | 80% |
| 12 – no draw | 82%79% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69%66% | 66% |
| 1 – Hoffenheim win | 68%59% · Elo 55% | 59%· Elo 55% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61%62% | 62% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 52%56% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48%44% | 44% |
| Both teams to score: no | 39%38% | 38% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 32%41% | 41% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31%34% | 34% |
| X – draw | 18%21% · Elo 25% | 21%· Elo 25% |
| 2 – Hamburg win | 14%20% · Elo 20% | 20%· Elo 20% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12%15% | 15% |
Attack vs defence
Hoffenheim attack vs Hamburg defenceattack1538defence1419+119 pts to the attack
Hamburg attack vs Hoffenheim defenceattack1394defence1476−82 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 10.0 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.566%60%
9.554%48%
10.542%36%
11.531%27%
Each team on its own
Hoffenheimwe expect 6.8, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 65%
Hamburgwe expect 3.8, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 34%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 55%close to the league averageunder 45%over
We expect 20.4 in this match, 20.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.562%59%
19.555%53%
20.547%46%
21.540%39%
Each team on its own
Hoffenheimwe expect 11.9, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 72%
Hamburgwe expect 9.6, league average 10.0 · chance of over 10.5: 37%
Referee: 18.4 fouls per match on average (21 matches in our data)−1.6 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.562%66%
3.540%46%
4.522%30%
5.511%16%
Each team on its own
Hoffenheimwe expect 1.7, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
Hamburgwe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Hamburg concede 2.6 goals per game
- Hoffenheim concede 2.1 goals per game
- Hoffenheim: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Hamburg: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Hoffenheim: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Hamburg: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hamburg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5:15 | 6 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9:13 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Hoffenheim vs Hamburg?
Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburg (half time 1-1).
Did the Hoffenheim vs Hamburg tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Cards – Hoffenheim (yellow=1, red=2): Over 1.5. The tip won.