BundesligaMatchday 6
Werder Bremen vs Paderborn: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%56%O2.562%55%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Paderborn3:4Werder BremenW
- Werder Bremen1:4PaderbornL
- Paderborn1:5Werder BremenW
- Werder Bremen0:1PaderbornL
- Paderborn2:2Werder BremenD
Werder Bremen's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses4.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 9.9over 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.6under 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.0 : 1.2total 3.2Attack/defence1.7 : 1.1total 2.9
Werder Bremen : PaderbornMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-110%1-07%2-08%1-2—0-1—3-16%Attack/defence1-112%2-110%1-010%2-09%1-26%0-16%3-1—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-07%1-010%2-02-08%2-09%1-21-2—1-26%0-10-1—0-16%3-13-16%3-1—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84%78% | 78% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 77%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%76% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62%56% | 56% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 60%67% | 67% |
| 1 – Werder Bremen win | 54%51% · Elo 62% | 51%· Elo 62% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 46%49% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%33% | 33% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38%45% | 45% |
| Both teams to score: no | 38%44% | 44% |
| X – draw | 23%24% · Elo 22% | 24%· Elo 22% |
| 2 – Paderborn win | 23%25% · Elo 16% | 25%· Elo 16% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Werder Bremen attack vs Paderborn defenceattack1452defence1459−7 pts to the attack
Paderborn attack vs Werder Bremen defenceattack1382defence1495−113 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 9.2 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.556%61%
9.543%48%
10.532%36%
11.522%28%
Each team on its own
Werder Bremenwe expect 5.6, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 47%
Paderbornwe expect 3.5, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 28%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 18.6 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.548%59%
19.541%53%
20.533%46%
21.527%39%
Each team on its own
Werder Bremenwe expect 9.8, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 50%
Paderbornwe expect 8.6, league average 10.0 · chance of over 9.5: 37%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.561%66%
3.539%46%
4.522%30%
5.511%16%
Each team on its own
Werder Bremenwe expect 2.0, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 58%
Paderbornwe expect 1.2, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Werder Bremen score a lot late on: 11 of 26 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Werder Bremen: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Paderborn: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3:7 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Werder Bremen vs Paderborn?
Werder Bremen are the favourites. Chances: Werder Bremen win 54%, draw 23%, Paderborn win 23%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Werder Bremen vs Paderborn?
Expected goals: 3.2 (Werder Bremen 2.0, Paderborn 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 62%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Paderborn?
The chance that both teams score is 62%.
When is Werder Bremen vs Paderborn?
The Bundesliga match kicks off 17 October 2026, 14:30 (UK time).