Premier DivisionMatchday 35

Derry City vs Dundalk: prediction, tips and stats

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Derry City
3-53-31-02-21-0
1.9:1.0Pre-match
Dundalk
1-22-30-41-13-2

Our tips

Tip in 9d 10h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloDerry City141655%52%Draw25%27%Dundalk131320%21%
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%O2.556%56%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Dundalk2:1Derry CityL
  2. Dundalk2:2Derry CityD
  3. Derry City2:2DundalkD
  4. Dundalk0:2Derry CityW
  5. Derry City1:1DundalkD
Derry City's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.2under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.4league 4.3under 4.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeno referee data

Prediction: result and goals

Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.9 : 1.1total 3.0Attack/defence1.9 : 1.0total 2.9
Derry City : Dundalk
Most likely scores
Model1-112%1-09%2-110%2-09%0-06%3-1—3-0—Attack/defence1-111%1-010%2-110%2-010%0-0—3-16%3-06%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-111%1-01-09%1-010%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-09%2-010%0-00-06%0-0—3-13-1—3-16%3-03-0—3-06%
OutcomeModelAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals81%79%79%
1X – home team avoid defeat80%81%81%
12 – no draw75%77%77%
Under 3.5 goals66%67%67%
Over 2.5 goals56%56%56%
1 – Derry City win55%58% · Elo 52%58%· Elo 52%
X2 – away team avoid defeat45%42%42%
Under 2.5 goals44%44%44%
Over 3.5 goals34%33%33%
X – draw25%23% · Elo 27%23%· Elo 27%
2 – Dundalk win20%19% · Elo 21%19%· Elo 21%
Under 1.5 goals20%21%21%
Attack vs defence
Derry City attack vs Dundalk defenceattack1523defence1386+137 pts to the attack
Dundalk attack vs Derry City defenceattack1494defence1578−84 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.563%60%
8.551%46%
9.538%30%
10.527%22%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Derry Citywe expect 5.9, league average 4.8 · chance of over 4.5: 68%
Dundalkwe expect 3.3, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 42%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 22.2 in this match, 21.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
20.560%53%
21.553%49%
22.546%44%
23.539%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Derry Citywe expect 10.9, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 52%
Dundalkwe expect 11.4, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 57%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 63%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 37%over
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.583%78%
2.563%49%
3.541%34%
4.524%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Derry Citywe expect 1.8, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Dundalkwe expect 1.5, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 43%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Dundalk concede 2.1 goals per game
  • Dundalk: only 6 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Dundalk: newly promoted
  • Derry City: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Dundalk: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Derry City

Dundalk

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Derry City32914945:4241
6Dundalk3310111250:5541
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?

Derry City are the favourites. Chances: Derry City win 55%, draw 25%, Dundalk win 20%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.

How many goals will there be in Derry City vs Dundalk?

Expected goals: 3.0 (Derry City 1.9, Dundalk 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1.

When is Derry City vs Dundalk?

The Premier Division match kicks off 23 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).

See also