J1 LeagueMatchday 12
Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 4hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%O2.554%52%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Kyoto1:1Gamba OsakaD
- Gamba Osaka2:0KyotoW
- Kyoto3:1Gamba OsakaL
- Gamba Osaka2:1KyotoW
- Kyoto2:2Gamba OsakaD
Gamba Osaka's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.5league 9.4under 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.5 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.8league 2.6over 2.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 2.8 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.6 : 1.3total 2.8Attack/defence1.5 : 1.3total 2.8
Gamba Osaka : KyotoMost likely scores
Model1-112%1-09%2-19%0-18%1-28%2-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-09%2-19%0-18%1-28%2-07%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-01-09%1-09%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-18%0-18%1-21-28%1-28%2-02-0—2-07%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 69%69% | 69% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68%70% | 70% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 56%57% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54%52% | 52% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46%48% | 48% |
| 1 – Gamba Osaka win | 44%43% · Elo 45% | 43%· Elo 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32%30% | 30% |
| 2 – Kyoto win | 32%31% · Elo 27% | 31%· Elo 27% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Gamba Osaka attack vs Kyoto defenceattack1515defence1471+44 pts to the attack
Kyoto attack vs Gamba Osaka defenceattack1494defence1473+21 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 8.4 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.559%53%
8.546%39%
9.534%28%
10.523%23%
Each team on its own
Gamba Osakawe expect 4.7, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 50%
Kyotowe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 50%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 19.8 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.558%58%
19.550%49%
20.543%42%
21.536%35%
Each team on its own
Gamba Osakawe expect 9.1, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 42%
Kyotowe expect 10.8, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 51%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 63%close to the league averageunderover 37%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.559%54%
3.537%35%
4.520%19%
5.510%13%
Each team on its own
Gamba Osakawe expect 1.5, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Kyotowe expect 1.6, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Gamba Osaka: 4 defeats in a row
- Gamba Osaka score a lot late on: 11 of 26 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Gamba Osaka played 3 days ago
- Kyoto played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kyoto | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:16 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto?
Gamba Osaka are the favourites. Chances: Gamba Osaka win 44%, draw 25%, Kyoto win 32%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Gamba Osaka 1.6, Kyoto 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto?
The J1 League match kicks off 24 October 2026, 08:00 (UK time).