J1 LeagueMatchday 11
Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 7d 6hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%O2.542%45%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Gamba Osaka1:2Avispa FukuokaW
- Avispa Fukuoka2:2Gamba OsakaD
- Avispa Fukuoka1:0Gamba OsakaW
- Gamba Osaka2:1Avispa FukuokaL
- Gamba Osaka2:2Avispa FukuokaD
Avispa Fukuoka's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.4league 9.4under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.7league 2.6over 2.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 2.7 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.2 : 1.2total 2.4Attack/defence1.3 : 1.2total 2.5
Avispa Fukuoka : Gamba OsakaMost likely scores
Model1-113%0-111%1-011%0-09%2-1—1-28%Attack/defence1-113%0-110%1-010%0-09%2-18%1-28%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%0-10-111%0-110%1-01-011%1-010%0-00-09%0-09%2-12-1—2-18%1-21-28%1-28%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 79%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%72% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68%70% | 70% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 65%63% | 63% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 63%65% | 65% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58%55% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42%45% | 45% |
| 2 – Gamba Osaka win | 37%35% · Elo 40% | 35%· Elo 40% |
| 1 – Avispa Fukuoka win | 35%37% · Elo 32% | 37%· Elo 32% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 32%30% | 30% |
| X – draw | 28%28% · Elo 28% | 28%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Avispa Fukuoka attack vs Gamba Osaka defenceattack1416defence1473−57 pts to the attack
Gamba Osaka attack vs Avispa Fukuoka defenceattack1515defence1520−5 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 8.4 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.560%53%
8.546%39%
9.534%28%
10.524%23%
Each team on its own
Avispa Fukuokawe expect 4.7, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 50%
Gamba Osakawe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 62%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 38%over
We expect 21.4 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.569%58%
19.562%49%
20.554%42%
21.547%35%
Each team on its own
Avispa Fukuokawe expect 11.9, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 72%
Gamba Osakawe expect 9.7, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 38%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 63%close to the league averageunderover 37%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.559%54%
3.537%35%
4.520%19%
5.59%13%
Each team on its own
Avispa Fukuokawe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Gamba Osakawe expect 1.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Gamba Osaka: 4 defeats in a row
- Gamba Osaka score a lot late on: 11 of 26 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Avispa Fukuoka played 3 days ago
- Gamba Osaka: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11:13 | 7 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:16 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Avispa Fukuoka win 35%, draw 28%, Gamba Osaka win 37%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka?
Expected goals: 2.4 (Avispa Fukuoka 1.2, Gamba Osaka 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 42%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka?
The J1 League match kicks off 21 October 2026, 11:00 (UK time).