J1 LeagueMatchday 12
Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 2hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%O2.556%51%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Yokohama F. Marinos3:0Nagoya GrampusL
- Nagoya Grampus2:0Yokohama F. MarinosW
- Yokohama F. Marinos0:2Nagoya GrampusW
- Nagoya Grampus2:1Yokohama F. MarinosW
- Nagoya Grampus2:2Yokohama F. MarinosD
Nagoya Grampus's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.2league 9.4under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.8league 2.6over 2.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 2.8 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.4 : 1.5total 2.9Attack/defence1.4 : 1.4total 2.7
Nagoya Grampus : Yokohama F. MarinosMost likely scores
Model1-111%1-29%0-18%1-08%2-18%0-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-28%0-19%1-09%2-18%0-07%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-113%1-21-29%1-28%0-10-18%0-19%1-01-08%1-09%2-12-18%2-18%0-00-0—0-07%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67%71% | 71% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 64%63% | 63% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 60%64% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56%51% | 51% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44%49% | 49% |
| 2 – Yokohama F. Marinos win | 40%37% · Elo 41% | 37%· Elo 41% |
| 1 – Nagoya Grampus win | 36%37% · Elo 31% | 37%· Elo 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 24%27% · Elo 28% | 27%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
Nagoya Grampus attack vs Yokohama F. Marinos defenceattack1496defence1508−12 pts to the attack
Yokohama F. Marinos attack vs Nagoya Grampus defenceattack1529defence1468+61 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 8.0 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.554%53%
8.540%39%
9.529%28%
10.519%23%
Each team on its own
Nagoya Grampuswe expect 4.2, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 40%
Yokohama F. Marinoswe expect 3.7, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 51%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 71%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 29%over
We expect 22.8 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.577%58%
19.571%49%
20.564%42%
21.557%35%
Each team on its own
Nagoya Grampuswe expect 9.9, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 52%
Yokohama F. Marinoswe expect 13.4, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 75%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.567%54%
3.546%35%
4.527%19%
5.514%13%
Each team on its own
Nagoya Grampuswe expect 2.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 65%
Yokohama F. Marinoswe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Yokohama F. Marinos: 18 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Nagoya Grampus: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Yokohama F. Marinos: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:9 | 15 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9:15 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Nagoya Grampus win 36%, draw 24%, Yokohama F. Marinos win 40%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Nagoya Grampus 1.4, Yokohama F. Marinos 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
The J1 League match kicks off 25 October 2026, 05:00 (UK time).