J1 LeagueMatchday 12
Urawa Reds vs V-Varen Nagasaki: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 3hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%O2.551%50%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.1
H2Hlast 2 meetings
- Urawa Reds0:0V-Varen NagasakiD
- V-Varen Nagasaki1:1Urawa RedsD
Urawa Reds's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses1.0 goals per match
too few to read anything intoCornersleague corners9.2league 9.4under 9.5: 56%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.6league 2.6under 2.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 2.6 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.6 : 1.1total 2.7Attack/defence1.6 : 1.1total 2.7
Urawa Reds : V-Varen NagasakiMost likely scores
Model1-112%1-011%2-110%2-09%0-17%0-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-011%2-110%2-09%0-17%0-07%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-01-011%1-011%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-09%2-09%0-10-17%0-17%0-00-0—0-07%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 76%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 75%75% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71%72% | 72% |
| 1 – Urawa Reds win | 51%50% · Elo 48% | 50%· Elo 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51%50% | 50% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49%50% | 50% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 49%50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29%28% | 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25%25% | 25% |
| 2 – V-Varen Nagasaki win | 25%25% · Elo 25% | 25%· Elo 25% |
| X – draw | 24%26% · Elo 27% | 26%· Elo 27% |
Attack vs defence
Urawa Reds attack vs V-Varen Nagasaki defenceattack1512defence1430+82 pts to the attack
V-Varen Nagasaki attack vs Urawa Reds defenceattack1432defence1500−68 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 47%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.560%53%
8.547%39%
9.535%28%
10.524%23%
Each team on its own
Urawa Redswe expect 4.5, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 47%
V-Varen Nagasakiwe expect 4.2, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 59%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 20.2 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.560%58%
19.553%49%
20.545%42%
21.538%35%
Each team on its own
Urawa Redswe expect 9.7, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 49%
V-Varen Nagasakiwe expect 10.6, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 48%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 72%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 28%
We expect 2.7 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.550%54%
3.528%35%
4.514%19%
5.56%13%
Each team on its own
Urawa Redswe expect 1.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
V-Varen Nagasakiwe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Urawa Reds concede 2.3 goals per game
- Urawa Reds: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Urawa Reds: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- V-Varen Nagasaki: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Urawa Reds | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:21 | 12 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11:16 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Urawa Reds vs V-Varen Nagasaki?
Urawa Reds are the favourites. Chances: Urawa Reds win 51%, draw 24%, V-Varen Nagasaki win 25%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Urawa Reds vs V-Varen Nagasaki?
Expected goals: 2.7 (Urawa Reds 1.6, V-Varen Nagasaki 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Urawa Reds vs V-Varen Nagasaki?
The J1 League match kicks off 25 October 2026, 06:00 (UK time).