J1 LeagueMatchday 12
Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 0hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS42%O2.529%34%|exp. goals 1.0 : 1.0
H2Hlast 4 meetings
- Verdy0:0Avispa FukuokaD
- Avispa Fukuoka0:0VerdyD
- Avispa Fukuoka0:1VerdyW
- Verdy0:0Avispa FukuokaD
Verdy's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 0 losses0.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 9.4under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.8league 2.6over 2.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 2.8 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model0.9 : 1.0total 1.9Attack/defence1.0 : 1.0total 2.1
Verdy : Avispa FukuokaMost likely scores
Model0-015%0-115%1-014%1-113%0-27%1-2—2-1—Attack/defence0-013%0-113%1-013%1-114%0-2—1-27%2-17%
ModelAttack/defence0-00-015%0-013%0-10-115%0-113%1-01-014%1-013%1-11-113%1-114%0-20-27%0-2—1-21-2—1-27%2-12-1—2-17%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 88%85% | 85% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 71%66% | 66% |
| 12 – no draw | 68%69% | 69% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 67%66% | 66% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 65%65% | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56%61% | 61% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 44%39% | 39% |
| 2 – Avispa Fukuoka win | 35%35% · Elo 36% | 35%· Elo 36% |
| 1 – Verdy win | 33%34% · Elo 36% | 34%· Elo 36% |
| X – draw | 32%31% · Elo 29% | 31%· Elo 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29%34% | 34% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12%15% | 15% |
Attack vs defence
Verdy attack vs Avispa Fukuoka defenceattack1348defence1520−172 pts to the attack
Avispa Fukuoka attack vs Verdy defenceattack1416defence1503−87 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.553%53%
8.540%39%
9.528%28%
10.519%23%
Each team on its own
Verdywe expect 3.4, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 27%
Avispa Fukuokawe expect 4.3, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 60%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 65%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 35%over
We expect 21.9 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.572%58%
19.565%49%
20.558%42%
21.551%35%
Each team on its own
Verdywe expect 10.6, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 60%
Avispa Fukuokawe expect 11.6, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 59%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 74%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 26%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.547%54%
3.526%35%
4.512%19%
5.55%13%
Each team on its own
Verdywe expect 1.5, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Avispa Fukuokawe expect 1.0, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 28%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Verdy score only 0.6 goals per game
- Verdy: no win in 12 matches
- Verdy: only 4 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Verdy played 3 days ago
- Avispa Fukuoka played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11:13 | 7 |
| 20 | Verdy | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4:14 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Verdy win 33%, draw 32%, Avispa Fukuoka win 35%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Expected goals: 1.9 (Verdy 0.9, Avispa Fukuoka 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 29%. Most likely score: 0-0.
When is Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka?
The J1 League match kicks off 24 October 2026, 07:00 (UK time).