Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.

Yellow cardsleague yellows3.3league 3.2under 3.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 3.3 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.

Refereeawaiting appointment

Prediction: result and goals

Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Model2.0 : 1.3total 3.3Attack/defence1.9 : 1.3total 3.2

Jong AZ Alkmaar : Helmond

Most likely scores

Model1-19%2-110%1-07%2-07%3-17%1-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-08%2-08%3-16%1-26%

ModelAttack/defence1-11-19%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-07%1-08%2-02-07%2-08%3-13-17%3-16%1-21-2—1-26%

Outcome	Model	Attack/defence
12 – no draw	79%77%	77%
1X – home team avoid defeat	75%75%	75%
1 – Jong AZ Alkmaar win	54%52% · Elo 53%	52%· Elo 53%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	46%48%	48%
2 – Helmond win	25%25% · Elo 23%	25%· Elo 23%
X – draw	21%23% · Elo 24%	23%· Elo 24%

Attack vs defence

Jong AZ Alkmaar attack vs Helmond defenceattack1546defence1494+52 pts to the attack

Helmond attack vs Jong AZ Alkmaar defenceattack1408defence1456−48 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Over 9.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over

We expect 9.8 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

8.563%61%

9.551%51%

10.539%36%

11.528%29%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Jong AZ Alkmaarwe expect 6.0, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 54%

Helmondwe expect 3.9, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 36%

Foulsleague average

Under 23.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%

We expect 22.8 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

22.550%48%

23.543%45%

24.536%36%

25.530%32%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Jong AZ Alkmaarwe expect 10.7, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 39%

Helmondwe expect 12.0, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 52%

Offsidesleague average

Under 3.5 · 69%close to the league averageunderover 31%

We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.553%59%

3.531%31%

4.516%20%

5.57%11%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Jong AZ Alkmaarwe expect 1.5, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 45%

Helmondwe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 36%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form

Jong AZ Alkmaar

Helmond

League position

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	Pts
11	Jong AZ Alkmaar	10	4	1	5	22:18	13
17	Helmond	10	2	3	5	16:19	9

Full league table

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Helmond?

Jong AZ Alkmaar are the favourites. Chances: Jong AZ Alkmaar win 54%, draw 21%, Helmond win 25%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.

How many goals will there be in Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Helmond?

Expected goals: 3.3 (Jong AZ Alkmaar 2.0, Helmond 1.3). Most likely score: 2-1.

When is Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Helmond?

The Eerste Divisie match kicks off 23 October 2026, 19:00 (UK time).

Our tips

The match in numbers

Prediction: result and goals

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

League form

Jong AZ Alkmaar

Helmond

League position

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Helmond?

How many goals will there be in Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Helmond?

When is Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Helmond?

See also