Eerste DivisieMatchday 11
Helmond vs NAC Breda: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 2d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%57%O2.568%54%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.6
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Helmond1:0NAC BredaW
- NAC Breda1:1HelmondD
- Helmond2:2NAC BredaD
- NAC Breda1:0HelmondL
- Helmond4:0NAC BredaW
Helmond's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.4under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.2under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 2.4total 3.5Attack/defence1.3 : 1.6total 2.9
Helmond : NAC BredaMost likely scores
Market1-19%1-210%0-29%0-1—1-38%2-1—0-37%1-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-29%0-27%0-19%1-3—2-17%0-3—1-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-112%1-21-210%1-29%0-20-29%0-27%0-10-1—0-19%1-31-38%1-3—2-12-1—2-17%0-30-37%0-3—1-01-0—1-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87%78% | 78% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 84%70% | 70% |
| 12 – no draw | 81%75% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68%54% | 54% |
| 2 – NAC Breda win | 65%45% · Elo 55% | 45%· Elo 55% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62%57% | 57% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 54%68% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46%32% | 32% |
| Both teams to score: no | 38%43% | 43% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 35%55% | 55% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32%46% | 46% |
| X – draw | 19%25% · Elo 23% | 25%· Elo 23% |
| 1 – Helmond win | 16%30% · Elo 22% | 30%· Elo 22% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Helmond attack vs NAC Breda defenceattack1408defence1582−174 pts to the attack
NAC Breda attack vs Helmond defenceattack1579defence1494+85 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 9.5 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.560%61%
9.548%51%
10.536%36%
11.526%29%
Each team on its own
Helmondwe expect 4.7, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 33%
NAC Bredawe expect 4.6, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 23.6 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.555%48%
23.548%45%
24.542%36%
25.535%32%
Each team on its own
Helmondwe expect 13.8, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 70%
NAC Bredawe expect 9.9, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 30%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 68%close to the league averageunderover 32%
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.554%59%
3.532%31%
4.517%20%
5.57%11%
Each team on its own
Helmondwe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
NAC Bredawe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- NAC Breda: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- NAC Breda: newly promoted
- Helmond: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- NAC Breda: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NAC Breda | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20:19 | 17 |
| 17 | Helmond | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 16:19 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Helmond vs NAC Breda?
NAC Breda are the favourites. Chances: Helmond win 16%, draw 19%, NAC Breda win 65%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Helmond vs NAC Breda?
Expected goals: 3.5 (Helmond 1.1, NAC Breda 2.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 68%. Most likely score: 1-2.
Will both teams score in Helmond vs NAC Breda?
The chance that both teams score is 62%.
When is Helmond vs NAC Breda?
The Eerste Divisie match kicks off 16 October 2026, 19:00 (UK time).