Eerste DivisieMatchday 10

NAC Breda 1-0 MVV Maastricht: prediction, tips and result

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NAC Breda
2-42-32-14-22-2
1-0Full time(half time 1-0)
MVV Maastricht
1-42-01-60-41-1
Stadium:
Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Corners: Under 10.5Won57%

under 10.5 corners in 6 of the hosts' last 9 league matches and 9 of the visitors' last 9 (52% of league matches); 10.1 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 8.4 in the visitors', league average 10.5

Other tips

  • Match Result: NAC BredaWon74%

    NAC Breda: won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings

  • Total Goals: Over 2.5Lost69%

    over 2.5 goals in 8 of the hosts' last 9 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 9 (66% of league matches)

For the brave
Correct Score: 2:1Lost9%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloNAC Breda141374%67%Draw15%19%MVV Maastricht119311%14%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%58%O2.570%65%|exp. goals 2.3 : 1.0not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. NAC Breda1:2MVV MaastrichtL
  2. MVV Maastricht1:4NAC BredaW
  3. MVV Maastricht1:4NAC BredaW
  4. NAC Breda1:0MVV MaastrichtW
  5. NAC Breda4:1MVV MaastrichtW
NAC Breda's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss3.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.5under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.5 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 7
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.3under 3.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.won · ended 3
Refereeawaiting appointment
Dutching(several bets at once)67%BTTS yes2:0coverageleague 66% · H2H 4/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.7 : 0.9total 3.6Attack/defence2.3 : 1.0total 3.3
NAC Breda : MVV Maastricht
Most likely scores
Market2-010%2-19%3-09%1-17%3-18%1-0—Attack/defence2-010%2-110%3-08%1-19%3-18%1-08%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-010%2-010%2-12-19%2-110%3-03-09%3-08%1-11-17%1-19%3-13-18%3-18%1-01-0—1-08%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat89%85%85%
Over 1.5 goals88%85%85%
12 – no draw85%81%81%
1 – NAC Breda win74%67% · Elo 67%67%· Elo 67%
Over 2.5 goals70%65%65%
Both teams to score: yes57%58%58%
Under 3.5 goals52%57%57%
Over 3.5 goals48%43%43%
Both teams to score: no43%42%42%
Under 2.5 goals30%35%35%
X2 – away team avoid defeat26%34%34%
X – draw15%19% · Elo 19%19%· Elo 19%
Under 1.5 goals12%15%15%
2 – MVV Maastricht win11%15% · Elo 14%15%· Elo 14%
Attack vs defence
NAC Breda attack vs MVV Maastricht defenceattack1590defence1432+158 pts to the attack
MVV Maastricht attack vs NAC Breda defenceattack1401defence1575−174 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 9.7 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
9.549%57%
10.538%40%
11.527%32%
12.519%24%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
NAC Bredawe expect 5.8, league average 5.5 · chance of over 5.5: 52%
MVV Maastrichtwe expect 3.7, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 32%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 22.8 in this match, 23.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
22.550%48%
23.543%46%
24.537%35%
25.531%32%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
NAC Bredawe expect 11.3, league average 12.0 · chance of over 12.5: 35%
MVV Maastrichtwe expect 11.4, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 47%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 42%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.564%58%
3.542%30%
4.524%21%
5.512%11%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
NAC Bredawe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
MVV Maastrichtwe expect 2.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 60%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • MVV Maastricht concede 2.1 goals per game
  • NAC Breda: newly promoted
  • NAC Breda: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
  • MVV Maastricht: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

NAC Breda

MVV Maastricht

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5NAC Breda1052320:1917
7MVV Maastricht1051413:2016
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of NAC Breda vs MVV Maastricht?

NAC Breda 1-0 MVV Maastricht (half time 1-0).

Did the NAC Breda vs MVV Maastricht tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Corners: Under 10.5. The tip won.

See also