Eerste DivisieMatchday 11
MVV Maastricht vs Heracles: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 4d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%60%O2.568%62%|exp. goals 1.2 : 2.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- MVV Maastricht0:2HeraclesL
- Heracles2:2MVV MaastrichtD
- MVV Maastricht1:2HeraclesL
- Heracles5:1MVV MaastrichtL
- MVV Maastricht2:2HeraclesD
MVV Maastricht's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses3.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.1league 3.2under 3.5: 62%Expected yellow cards: 3.1 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 2.4total 3.5Attack/defence1.2 : 2.0total 3.2
MVV Maastricht : HeraclesMost likely scores
Market1-210%1-18%0-29%1-38%0-1—0-37%Attack/defence1-210%1-110%0-29%1-37%0-18%0-36%
MarketAttack/defence1-21-210%1-210%1-11-18%1-110%0-20-29%0-29%1-31-38%1-37%0-10-1—0-18%0-30-37%0-36%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87%83% | 83% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 85%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 82%78% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68%62% | 62% |
| 2 – Heracles win | 67%57% · Elo 60% | 57%· Elo 60% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60%60% | 60% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 54%60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46%40% | 40% |
| Both teams to score: no | 40%40% | 40% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 33%43% | 43% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32%38% | 38% |
| X – draw | 18%22% · Elo 21% | 22%· Elo 21% |
| 1 – MVV Maastricht win | 15%21% · Elo 19% | 21%· Elo 19% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13%17% | 17% |
Attack vs defence
MVV Maastricht attack vs Heracles defenceattack1394defence1611−217 pts to the attack
Heracles attack vs MVV Maastricht defenceattack1657defence1442+215 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 9.8 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.563%61%
9.551%51%
10.539%36%
11.528%29%
Each team on its own
MVV Maastrichtwe expect 4.1, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 24%
Heracleswe expect 5.5, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 62%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 48%over
We expect 24.1 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.558%48%
23.552%45%
24.545%36%
25.539%32%
Each team on its own
MVV Maastrichtwe expect 12.1, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 53%
Heracleswe expect 12.1, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 54%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 61%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.561%59%
3.540%31%
4.522%20%
5.511%11%
Each team on its own
MVV Maastrichtwe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Heracleswe expect 1.7, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Heracles score 3.1 goals per game
- MVV Maastricht concede 2.0 goals per game
- Heracles: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- MVV Maastricht matches average only 8.3 corners (league 10.4) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- MVV Maastricht: 16 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- MVV Maastricht: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Heracles: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 31:12 | 25 |
| 7 | MVV Maastricht | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13:20 | 16 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win MVV Maastricht vs Heracles?
Heracles are the favourites. Chances: MVV Maastricht win 15%, draw 18%, Heracles win 67%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in MVV Maastricht vs Heracles?
Expected goals: 3.5 (MVV Maastricht 1.1, Heracles 2.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 68%. Most likely score: 1-2.
Will both teams score in MVV Maastricht vs Heracles?
The chance that both teams score is 60%.
When is MVV Maastricht vs Heracles?
The Eerste Divisie match kicks off 18 October 2026, 15:45 (UK time).