Eerste DivisieMatchday 12
Volendam vs Utrecht: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%O2.562%|exp. goals 2.1 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Utrecht2:3VolendamW
- Volendam2:0UtrechtW
- Volendam2:0UtrechtW
- Utrecht0:1VolendamW
- Utrecht2:3VolendamW
Volendam's record: 5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.2league 3.2under 3.5: 61%Expected yellow cards: 3.2 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model2.7 : 1.1total 3.8Attack/defence2.1 : 1.1total 3.2
Volendam : UtrechtMost likely scores
Model2-19%1-16%2-08%3-18%1-0—3-07%Attack/defence2-110%1-110%2-09%3-17%1-08%3-06%
ModelAttack/defence2-12-19%2-110%1-11-16%1-110%2-02-08%2-09%3-13-18%3-17%1-01-0—1-08%3-03-07%3-06%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 87%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 85%79% | 79% |
| 1 – Volendam win | 72%60% · Elo 69% | 60%· Elo 69% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 28%40% | 40% |
| X – draw | 15%21% · Elo 18% | 21%· Elo 18% |
| 2 – Utrecht win | 13%19% · Elo 13% | 19%· Elo 13% |
Attack vs defence
Volendam attack vs Utrecht defenceattack1557defence1448+109 pts to the attack
Utrecht attack vs Volendam defenceattack1449defence1563−114 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 9.8 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.563%61%
9.551%51%
10.539%36%
11.528%29%
Each team on its own
Volendamwe expect 5.4, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 45%
Utrechtwe expect 4.4, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 44%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 24.4 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.561%48%
23.554%45%
24.547%36%
25.541%32%
Each team on its own
Volendamwe expect 12.7, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 60%
Utrechtwe expect 11.8, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 51%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 70%close to the league averageunderover 30%
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.552%59%
3.530%31%
4.515%20%
5.56%11%
Each team on its own
Volendamwe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Utrechtwe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Utrecht concede 2.3 goals per game
- Utrecht: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Volendam: newly promoted
- Volendam: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Utrecht: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Volendam | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22:17 | 15 |
| 20 | Utrecht | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 16:23 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Volendam vs Utrecht?
Volendam are the favourites. Chances: Volendam win 72%, draw 15%, Utrecht win 13%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Volendam vs Utrecht?
Expected goals: 3.8 (Volendam 2.7, Utrecht 1.1). Most likely score: 2-1.
When is Volendam vs Utrecht?
The Eerste Divisie match kicks off 23 October 2026, 19:00 (UK time).