Liga PortugalMatchday 9
Gil Vicente vs Porto: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS42%47%O2.549%43%|exp. goals 1.0 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Porto3:0Gil VicenteL
- Gil Vicente0:2PortoL
- Gil Vicente3:1PortoW
- Porto3:0Gil VicenteL
- Gil Vicente1:1PortoD
Gil Vicente's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.5league 9.3under 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.5 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.4league 4.8under 4.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market0.6 : 2.0total 2.6Attack/defence1.0 : 1.4total 2.4
Gil Vicente : PortoMost likely scores
Market0-214%0-114%1-110%0-0—0-39%1-29%1-0—Attack/defence0-29%0-113%1-113%0-010%0-3—1-29%1-09%
MarketAttack/defence0-20-214%0-29%0-10-114%0-113%1-11-110%1-113%0-00-0—0-010%0-30-39%0-3—1-21-29%1-29%1-01-0—1-09%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 88%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 79%72% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74%69% | 69% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73%78% | 78% |
| 2 – Porto win | 68%47% · Elo 64% | 47%· Elo 64% |
| Both teams to score: no | 58%53% | 53% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51%57% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49%43% | 43% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42%47% | 47% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 31%53% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27%22% | 22% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 20%28% · Elo 22% | 28%· Elo 22% |
| 1 – Gil Vicente win | 11%25% · Elo 14% | 25%· Elo 14% |
Attack vs defence
Gil Vicente attack vs Porto defenceattack1471defence1674−203 pts to the attack
Porto attack vs Gil Vicente defenceattack1663defence1539+124 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 8.0 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.555%59%
8.541%46%
9.529%31%
10.520%21%
Each team on its own
Gil Vicentewe expect 3.7, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 32%
Portowe expect 4.1, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 57%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 66%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 34%
We expect 23.3 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.540%56%
25.534%50%
26.528%42%
27.523%36%
Each team on its own
Gil Vicentewe expect 11.3, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 35%
Portowe expect 11.8, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 40%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.570%78%
2.545%51%
3.524%31%
4.511%18%
Each team on its own
Gil Vicentewe expect 1.0, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 28%
Portowe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Porto9 wins in a rowaway: 4Went on 61%League 35%Model 68%Record 16
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Porto matches average only 2.9 cards (league 5.0) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Gil Vicente matches average only 3.6 cards (league 5.0) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Gil Vicente score only 0.7 goals per game
- Porto: 9 wins in a row
- Gil Vicente: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Porto: 14 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20:4 | 24 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6:5 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Gil Vicente vs Porto?
Porto are the favourites. Chances: Gil Vicente win 11%, draw 20%, Porto win 68%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Gil Vicente vs Porto?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Gil Vicente 0.6, Porto 2.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 0-2.
Will both teams score in Gil Vicente vs Porto?
The chance that both teams score is 42%.
When is Gil Vicente vs Porto?
The Liga Portugal match kicks off 24 October 2026, 20:30 (UK time).