Liga PortugalMatchday 8

Moreirense 0-1 Gil Vicente: prediction, tips and result

·

Moreirense
1-01-20-43-11-1
0-1Full time(half time 0-0)
Gil Vicente
1-11-30-10-02-0
Stadium:
Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos
Referee:
Miguel Bertolo Nogueira

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Corners: Under 9.5Won59%

under 9.5 corners in 5 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 6 (54% of league matches); 7.3 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 8.7 in the visitors', league average 9.3

Other tips

  • Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Lost67%

    referee Miguel Bertolo Nogueira averages 5.0 card points a match, league average 5.3; 4.4 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 3.8 in the visitors', league average 5.3; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

  • Total Goals: Under 2.5Won61%

    our numbers: 2.2 goals in total in this match, league average 2.7

  • Shots on Target – Moreirense: Under 4.5Won70%

    Moreirense: 2.7 shots on target a match, Gil Vicente's opponents had 2.3 on average, league average 4.5; under 4.5 shots on target in 6 of their last 7 league matches, Gil Vicente's opponents had under 4.5 in 5 of 6 (56% of league matches)

For the brave
Corners: Under 8.5Won47%

under 8.5 corners in 5 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 6 (43% of league matches); 7.3 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 8.7 in the visitors', league average 9.3

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloMoreirense162629%39%Draw30%29%Gil Vicente166641%32%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS47%48%O2.540%41%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.2not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Moreirense1:2Gil VicenteL
  2. Gil Vicente2:0MoreirenseL
  3. Gil Vicente0:1MoreirenseW
  4. Moreirense3:2Gil VicenteW
  5. Moreirense0:1Gil VicenteL
Moreirense's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.0league 9.3under 9.5: 59%Expected corners: 9.0 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.won · ended 7
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.8under 4.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.lost · ended 7
RefereeM. Bertolo Nogueira−0.7 yellow cards vs average31 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)71%1X0:1coverageleague 77% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.0 : 1.3total 2.3Attack/defence1.1 : 1.2total 2.3
Moreirense : Gil Vicente
Most likely scores
Market1-114%0-112%0-011%1-09%1-28%2-1—Attack/defence1-114%0-111%0-010%1-011%1-28%2-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-114%0-10-112%0-111%0-00-011%0-010%1-01-09%1-011%1-21-28%1-28%2-12-1—2-17%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals80%79%79%
X2 – away team avoid defeat71%66%66%
12 – no draw70%71%71%
Over 1.5 goals68%68%68%
Under 2.5 goals60%59%59%
1X – home team avoid defeat59%63%63%
Both teams to score: no53%52%52%
Both teams to score: yes47%48%48%
2 – Gil Vicente win41%37% · Elo 32%37%· Elo 32%
Over 2.5 goals40%41%41%
Under 1.5 goals32%32%32%
X – draw30%29% · Elo 29%29%· Elo 29%
1 – Moreirense win29%34% · Elo 39%34%· Elo 39%
Over 3.5 goals20%21%21%
Attack vs defence
Moreirense attack vs Gil Vicente defenceattack1416defence1532−116 pts to the attack
Gil Vicente attack vs Moreirense defenceattack1470defence1441+29 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 8.0 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.554%60%
8.540%47%
9.528%32%
10.519%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Moreirensewe expect 3.6, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 31%
Gil Vicentewe expect 4.1, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 23.7 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.542%56%
25.536%50%
26.530%42%
27.525%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Moreirensewe expect 12.5, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 48%
Gil Vicentewe expect 12.5, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 48%
Referee: 23.3 fouls per match on average (23 matches in our data)−2.6 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 50%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 2.7 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.575%78%
2.550%52%
3.529%32%
4.514%19%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Moreirensewe expect 1.0, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 27%
Gil Vicentewe expect 1.7, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 48%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Gil Vicente matches average only 3.8 cards (league 5.0) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Moreirense matches average only 7.3 corners (league 9.3) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
  • Moreirense: 19 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Gil Vicente: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Moreirense

Gil Vicente

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Gil Vicente73226:511
11Moreirense82248:158
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?

Moreirense 0-1 Gil Vicente (half time 0-0).

Did the Moreirense vs Gil Vicente tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Corners: Under 9.5. The tip won.

See also