Liga PortugalMatchday 9
Santa Clara vs Benfica: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 12d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS45%49%O2.553%46%|exp. goals 0.9 : 1.6
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Santa Clara1:2BenficaL
- Benfica1:1Santa ClaraD
- Santa Clara0:1BenficaL
- Benfica4:1Santa ClaraL
- Benfica3:0Santa ClaraL
Santa Clara's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.3under 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.7league 4.8over 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market0.7 : 2.1total 2.8Attack/defence0.9 : 1.6total 2.5
Santa Clara : BenficaMost likely scores
Market0-213%0-112%1-110%1-29%0-39%0-0—1-0—Attack/defence0-210%0-112%1-112%1-210%0-3—0-08%1-07%
MarketAttack/defence0-20-213%0-210%0-10-112%0-112%1-11-110%1-112%1-21-29%1-210%0-30-39%0-3—0-00-0—0-08%1-01-0—1-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 89%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 80%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%72% | 72% |
| 2 – Benfica win | 69%52% · Elo 68% | 52%· Elo 68% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%75% | 75% |
| Both teams to score: no | 55%51% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53%46% | 46% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45%49% | 49% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 31%48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%25% | 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%28% | 28% |
| X – draw | 20%26% · Elo 20% | 26%· Elo 20% |
| 1 – Santa Clara win | 11%22% · Elo 12% | 22%· Elo 12% |
Attack vs defence
Santa Clara attack vs Benfica defenceattack1437defence1654−217 pts to the attack
Benfica attack vs Santa Clara defenceattack1755defence1568+187 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 7.7 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.550%59%
8.537%46%
9.526%31%
10.517%21%
Each team on its own
Santa Clarawe expect 3.4, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 25%
Benficawe expect 4.0, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 55%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 25.2 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.553%56%
25.546%50%
26.540%42%
27.534%36%
Each team on its own
Santa Clarawe expect 12.9, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 51%
Benficawe expect 12.3, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 45%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.571%78%
2.545%51%
3.524%31%
4.511%18%
Each team on its own
Santa Clarawe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 29%
Benficawe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Benfica7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals awayWent on 57%League 55%Model 53%Record 15
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Benfica score 2.9 goals per game
- Benfica: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Santa Clara concede only 0.5 goals per game
- Santa Clara: unbeaten in 8 matches
- Santa Clara: 21 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Santa Clara: 16 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Benfica: 15 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12:4 | 18 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Benfica are the favourites. Chances: Santa Clara win 11%, draw 20%, Benfica win 69%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Santa Clara 0.7, Benfica 2.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 0-2.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Benfica?
The chance that both teams score is 45%.
When is Santa Clara vs Benfica?
The Liga Portugal match kicks off 26 October 2026, 18:45 (UK time).