Liga PortugalMatchday 8
Benfica 2-0 Guimaraes: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Lisbon
- Referee:
- Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Total Goals: Over 2.5Lost66%
our numbers: 3.4 goals in total in this match, league average 2.7
Other tips
- Match Result: BenficaWon80%
Benfica: won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings; won 5 of their last 7 league matches
- Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Lost64%
referee Luis Miguel Branco Godinho averages 5.1 card points a match, league average 5.3; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total
- Shots on Target – Benfica: Over 4.5Won58%
our numbers for Benfica: 5.2 shots on target against a league average of 4.4
- Fouls: Under 25.5Lost64%
our numbers: 23.7 fouls against a league average of 25.5
For the brave
Total Goals: Over 3.5Lost44%
our numbers: 3.4 goals in total in this match, league average 2.7
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%51%O2.566%57%|exp. goals 2.1 : 0.9not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Benfica3:0GuimaraesW
- Guimaraes0:3BenficaW
- Guimaraes0:3BenficaW
- Benfica1:0GuimaraesW
- Guimaraes2:2BenficaD
Benfica's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.0league 9.3under 9.5: 59%Expected corners: 9.0 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.lost · ended 17
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.8under 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 12%.lost · ended 7
RefereeL. Miguel Branco Godinho−0.2 yellow cards vs average34 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)71%U3.54:03:1coverageleague 79% · H2H 4/5covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.6 : 0.8total 3.4Attack/defence2.1 : 0.9total 3.0
Benfica : GuimaraesMost likely scores
Market2-012%1-08%3-010%2-19%1-1—3-18%Attack/defence2-011%1-011%3-08%2-110%1-110%3-17%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-012%2-011%1-01-08%1-011%3-03-010%3-08%2-12-19%2-110%1-11-1—1-110%3-13-18%3-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 91%86% | 86% |
| 12 – no draw | 86%80% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86%80% | 80% |
| 1 – Benfica win | 77%66% · Elo 79% | 66%· Elo 79% |
| Our tip: Over 2.5 goals | 66%57% | 57% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 56%65% | 65% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50%51% | 51% |
| Both teams to score: no | 50%49% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44%35% | 35% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34%43% | 43% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 23%34% | 34% |
| X – draw | 14%20% · Elo 14% | 20%· Elo 14% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14%20% | 20% |
| 2 – Guimaraes win | 9%14% · Elo 7% | 14%· Elo 7% |
Attack vs defence
Benfica attack vs Guimaraes defenceattack1756defence1527+229 pts to the attack
Guimaraes attack vs Benfica defenceattack1499defence1648−149 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.562%60%
8.548%47%
9.536%32%
10.525%21%
Each team on its own
Benficawe expect 5.2, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 58%
Guimaraeswe expect 3.6, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 48%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 23.7 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.542%56%
25.536%50%
26.530%42%
27.525%36%
Each team on its own
Benficawe expect 11.3, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 35%
Guimaraeswe expect 12.8, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 51%
Referee: 26.2 fouls per match on average (24 matches in our data)−1.1 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 2.7 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.576%78%
2.552%51%
3.530%31%
4.515%18%
Each team on its own
Benficawe expect 1.5, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Guimaraeswe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Benfica score 2.9 goals per game
- Benfica: 10 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Guimaraes score only 0.6 goals per game
- Guimaraes: only 5 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Benfica: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Guimaraes: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:10 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Benfica vs Guimaraes?
Benfica 2-0 Guimaraes (half time 1-0).
Did the Benfica vs Guimaraes tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 2.5. The tip lost.