LaLigaMatchday 10
Barcelona vs Real Madrid: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS70%67%O2.576%70%|exp. goals 2.3 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Barcelona2:0Real MadridW
- Real Madrid2:1BarcelonaL
- Barcelona4:3Real MadridW
- Real Madrid0:4BarcelonaW
- Real Madrid3:2BarcelonaL
Barcelona's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses4.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.7under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.2league 4.4under 4.5: 60%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 25%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.6 : 1.4total 4.0Attack/defence2.3 : 1.3total 3.6
Barcelona : Real MadridMost likely scores
Market2-19%1-17%3-18%2-06%2-26%1-0—Attack/defence2-19%1-18%3-17%2-07%2-26%1-06%
MarketAttack/defence2-12-19%2-19%1-11-17%1-18%3-13-18%3-17%2-02-06%2-07%2-22-26%2-26%1-01-0—1-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 91%88% | 88% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 82%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 81%80% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76%70% | 70% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 70%67% | 67% |
| 1 – Barcelona win | 63%58% · Elo 49% | 58%· Elo 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56%49% | 49% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 44%51% | 51% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 37%42% | 42% |
| Both teams to score: no | 30%34% | 34% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24%30% | 30% |
| X – draw | 19%20% · Elo 27% | 20%· Elo 27% |
| 2 – Real Madrid win | 18%21% · Elo 23% | 21%· Elo 23% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9%12% | 12% |
Attack vs defence
Barcelona attack vs Real Madrid defenceattack1800defence1600+200 pts to the attack
Real Madrid attack vs Barcelona defenceattack1679defence1615+64 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 64%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 36%over
We expect 9.8 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.575%67%
8.564%53%
9.552%40%
10.540%31%
Each team on its own
Barcelonawe expect 6.6, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 63%
Real Madridwe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 71%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 29%
We expect 20.7 in this match, 23.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.535%55%
23.529%48%
24.523%43%
25.518%36%
Each team on its own
Barcelonawe expect 11.1, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 43%
Real Madridwe expect 9.2, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 23%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 69%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 31%over
We expect 4.7 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.584%69%
3.569%48%
4.551%34%
5.534%24%
Each team on its own
Barcelonawe expect 2.1, league average 2.1 · chance of over 2.5: 35%
Real Madridwe expect 2.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 72%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Barcelona score 3.8 goals per game
- Barcelona matches average only 2.8 cards (league 4.7) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Real Madrid score 2.4 goals per game
- Barcelona: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Barcelona: 8 wins in a row
- Barcelona: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Real Madrid: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34:7 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19:8 | 18 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
Barcelona are the favourites. Chances: Barcelona win 63%, draw 19%, Real Madrid win 18%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
Expected goals: 4.0 (Barcelona 2.6, Real Madrid 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 76%. Most likely score: 2-1.
Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
The chance that both teams score is 70%.
When is Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
The LaLiga match kicks off 25 October 2026, 20:00 (UK time).